New poll shows a tight race in the Republican primary for the 5th Congressional District

A new poll from state Rep. Chuck Goodrich's campaign shows a potentially tight race between Goodrich and incumbent U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz in the Republican primary for the 5th Congressional District, with five weeks to go before Election Day.

According to the topline results provided by the campaign, 33% of likely 5th District Republican primary voters surveyed in late March supported Spartz while 30% supported Goodrich, the CEO of Gaylor Electric. About 26% of likely Republican primary voters were still undecided, according to the poll memo.

The results also indicate 3% of likely Republican primary voters supported candidate Max Engling and 2% each supported Raju Chinthala and Mark Hurt. All of the remaining candidates were supported by fewer than 2% of those surveyed.

The poll, conducted by Mark it Red for the Goodrich campaign, has a margin of error of 3.3%, which would essentially put Spartz and Goodrich neck-and-neck. The group contacted 900 likely Republican voters in the 5th District through live phone interviews and an online form shared via text messages between March 25 and March 27.

In the memo, the campaign recognized Spartz's lead, but said likely Republican voters who are aware of both Goodrich and Spartz show more support for Goodrich's campaign.

"With time on his side and financial resources," the polling memo states, "Goodrich’s campaign is poised to capitalize on this momentum."

Chad Kinsella, an associate professor of political science at Ball State University, said it's important to take internal campaign polls with a grain of salt. But the high percent of undecided voters indicated in the Goodrich campaign's poll shows anything can happen ahead of the election in May, Kinsella said.

"It's still up for grabs," Kinsella said. "Absolutely."

More: U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz is in. What that means for the race for Indiana's 5th District

Dan Hazelwood, a consultant for the Spartz campaign, said Tuesday that election results in May will not reflect the results of the Goodrich campaign's poll.

"Is the congresswoman going to win this election?" Hazelwood said. "Absolutely."

It is not a surprise the race is closer than it was in February given the Goodrich campaign's spending, Hazelwood said. Federal Election Commission reports from 2023 show Goodrich raised nearly $700,000 and spent about $1 million.

In an interview with IndyStar on Monday, the congresswoman recognized she had a later start to the primary than her opponents and said she is focusing her campaign on her legislative record.

“Definitely my opponents have an advantage having been campaigning so much," Spartz told IndyStar. "I have a very short runway to deal with that."

Spartz in February filed for reelection in the 5th Congressional District after announcing in early 2023 she would not seek another term in Congress. Her reentry into the 5th District race upended a Republican primary where close to 10 candidates filed to seek the party's nomination in the May primary.

Goodrich’s campaign said internal polling from Mark it Red in February indicated that Spartz was ahead by 32 percentage points, but the new survey of likely Republican primary voters in March appears to show Goodrich has closed that gap.

Likewise, A Spartz internal campaign poll released in February and conducted by Missouri-based polling company co/efficient showed 44% of likely Republican primary voters would choose Spartz and 8% Goodrich with 45% of those voters undecided.

The other Republicans running in the 5th District primary include: Engling, Chinthala, Hurt, Patrick Malayter, Matthew Peiffer, LD Powell and Larry L. Savage Jr.

Contact IndyStar's state government and politics reporter Brittany Carloni at brittany.carloni@indystar.com or 317-779-4468. Follow her on Twitter/X@CarloniBrittany.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: GOP race for Indiana's 5th District U.S. House seat looks close, poll says