Poll: Most voters think Trump should be convicted, barred from running for office

A majority of voters say that former President Donald Trump should be convicted during his impeachment trial and barred from running for public office in the future, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll released on Monday.

The newest poll found that 54 percent of registered voters “somewhat” or “strongly” agreed that Trump should be convicted on a charge of inciting an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol last month. Even more — 58 percent — say he should either “probably” or “definitely” be barred from running for public office in the future. The Senate trial begins on Tuesday.

Though the poll mostly fell along partisan lines, 23 percent of Republicans agreed that Trump should either “definitely” or “probably” be barred from running for public office in the future; 19 percent said he should — either “definitely” or “probably” — be impeached and convicted.

Seven percent of Democrats departed from the majority of their party in the poll, saying Trump should not have been impeached nor should he be convicted.

Most voters, 56 percent, say Trump should testify under oath for the impeachment trial — an assertion that 32 percent of Republicans agree with. Last week, Trump’s attorneys said he would not testify during the trial after Democrats requested his testimony.

The number of Republican voters who agree that Trump should be convicted held steady from mid-January, at about 19 percent. That’s a slight uptick from a poll conducted just after the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol, when 14 percent of Republicans agreed that Trump should be convicted.

Two other recent surveys also found that about half of Americans said Trump should be convicted — a Quinnipiac poll found that 50 percent wanted to see a conviction, and another from Monmouth University found 52 percent. Compared with a similar poll from Trump’s first impeachment, about 4 percent more voters say Trump should be convicted in this trial.

The large majority of voters who responded in the newest poll had strong opinions about the questions. Far more voters answered that they “definitely” or “strongly” thought one answer was correct than voters who opted for answers with the words “somewhat” or “probably.”

The latest poll was conducted Feb. 5-7 among 1,986 registered voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a global data intelligence company, delivering insights on what people think in real time by surveying tens of thousands across the globe every single day.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents: Toplines |Crosstabs