Ohio's Republican Senate primary reaches bruising end with no clear favorite

Ohio's Republican Senate primary is heading for a brutal finale.

Voters will decide Tuesday whether Secretary of State Frank LaRose, businessman Bernie Moreno or state Sen. Matt Dolan should be the candidate to take on U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, this fall. Brown's reelection bid will be one of the most-watched races in the country as the GOP tries to regain control of the Senate.

Despite the high stakes, the primary flew under the radar for months. Ohioans were preoccupied last year with elections that centered around abortion rights and recreational marijuana legalization. Even the 2024 election cycle has yet to capture voters' attention, in part because the presidential primary is over.

That left Moreno, LaRose and Dolan scrambling to reach undecided voters in a race that became more vicious by the day. Cue a deluge of advertising, high-level endorsements and a visit from former President Donald Trump on Saturday.

Voter guide: What you need to know to vote Tuesday in Ohio

Even after all of that, a clear front-runner had not emerged by the eve of the March 19 primary. But the outcome on Tuesday will signal what path Ohio Republicans want to chart for 2024 and beyond − and whether there's still a place for traditional conservatives in Trump's GOP.

More: What to know about Republicans running in Ohio's U.S. Senate primary

Ohio Senate candidates make final pitch to voters

The candidates spent the past week barnstorming Ohio, at times accompanied by their biggest backers.

The main event came Saturday, when Trump rallied at the Dayton International Airport for Moreno. The former president endorsed Moreno back in December, but it didn't put the race away like many expected. Instead, Moreno struggled to break away from the pack and whittle down a plurality of undecided voters that dominated recent polls.

"If Bernie was up and running away with this thing with President Trump's endorsement like he should be...then he wouldn't be running the campaign he's running right now," LaRose spokesman Rick Gorka said after the candidates' final debate at Miami University.

Trump, joined by U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance and U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, used Saturday's rally to tamp down doubts about Moreno and encourage his supporters to turn out Tuesday. The former president painted Moreno as the victim of a merciless campaign and said he would get the job done on border security and the economy.

"Bernie is a political outsider who’s spent his entire life building up Ohio communities," Trump said. “He's highly respected all over the country, and he’s going to be a warrior in Washington."

Trump's visit reinforced the battle lines defining the race: A fight between the GOP's old guard and MAGA Republicans. Dolan enjoyed a late surge in the polls and secured endorsements from Gov. Mike DeWine and former Ohio Sen. Rob Portman. While Trump repeatedly called Dolan a "RINO," the state senator's backers say he's a pragmatist with a plan to solve problems − not just complain about them.

At a campaign event near Cincinnati, Portman argued that Dolan is best equipped to take on Brown this fall.

"What you really need to do is have a candidate who can appeal to those independent voters, particularly here in Ohio, where they swing back and forth," Portman said. "People say Ohio is a red state now. It's a lot redder than it used to be, that's for sure. But it's still a state where Democrats can win statewide if they appeal to that independent voter."

Then there's LaRose, who's struggled to gain ground despite a resume that screams frontrunner. He hasn't kept up with his self-funded opponents on the airwaves and must rely on a super PAC to vouch for him. But his campaign remains confident he can seal the deal, noting that he's the only statewide officeholder with high name recognition.

Speaking to Republicans in Portage County last week, LaRose gave his usual stump speech on the economy, border security and parents' rights. One person in the audience disagreed with LaRose's position on the war in Ukraine, saying the U.S. should suspend all funding. Despite that, John Heinl of Mantua, Ohio, said he still plans to support LaRose when he votes on Tuesday.

"Absolutely nothing has gone right for Frank LaRose in this campaign or really in the last year and a half ... but he could still win," University of Cincinnati political scientist David Niven said. "The fact that the largest chunk of Republicans is undecided, a strong close and he could still win this thing. For all the damage he's done himself, he's still in the game."

Ads fan flames as Ohio primary approaches ends

With the race so close, the candidates and their allies pulled out all the stops to make a final pitch to voters. For Moreno and Dolan, that also meant funneling more of their own wealth into their campaigns.

Spending for the primary surpassed $48 million as of Friday, according to AdImpact, with groups unleashing a torrent of ads over the past week alone. That included $3.1 million from a national Democratic group to promote Moreno and highlight his ties to Trump. While Democrats cast the ad as a criticism, Dolan's allies argued they're trying to hand-pick Brown's opponent in November.

"It's not surprising to see (Chuck) Schumer backing Moreno, given that Moreno has so many legal and political skeletons in his closet that it will lead to Sherrod Brown easily winning in November if Schumer manages to pull Moreno through the Republican primary," said Chris Pack, a spokesman for the pro-Dolan Buckeye Leadership Fund.

The candidates accused their opponents of not being sufficiently conservative. One ad highlighted lawsuits Moreno faced from former employees who accused him of not properly paying overtime. Others railed against Dolan's vote to increase the state gas tax and LaRose's past support of LGBTQ groups.

While Tuesday's primary is anyone's ballgame, the sparring guarantees one outcome: Whoever wins will enter the general election against Brown with bruises to show for it.

"It's a really interesting and probably last-time-ever battle between the country clubbers and the fire breathers," Niven said.

Akron Beacon Journal reporter Diane Smith contributed.

Haley BeMiller is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Republican Ohio Senate race ends in turmoil ahead of GOP primary