NOAA predicts 'above-normal' 2024 hurricane season in new outlook. What it means for Texas

Marley Malenfant , Austin American-Statesman
·3 min read
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It’s predicted to be a rough hurricane season this year. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30 each year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2024 hurricane season outlook Thursday and explained the climate factors that influence hurricane development.

Meteorologists are predicting more than double the average number of tropical cyclones due to La Niña and near-record warm ocean temperatures.

According to Yale Climate Connections, hotter oceans could lead to more powerful storms this year.

Here’s what that means for Corpus Christi and other Texas cities near the gulf.

What to expect this 2024 hurricane season

The NOAA predicts between 17 and 25 named storms this season, with 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Forecasters also predict between 4 to 7 major hurricanes, classified as category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

"The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation," the NOAA said in their outlook.

NOAA Hurricane outlook
NOAA Hurricane outlook

What is rapid intensification in hurricanes?

According to forecasters from Colorado State University, record-setting sea surface temperatures alone do not ensure a busy hurricane season, but they significantly impact it.

This could mean more powerful hurricanes, also known as rapid intensification.

The National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone by at least 35 mph within a 24-hour period. This rapid change can transform a relatively weak storm into a major hurricane, leading to increased threats to life and property due to stronger winds, higher storm surges, and more intense rainfall.

Hurricanes derive their energy from warm ocean waters. Higher sea surface temperatures can provide more energy to fuel the storm's growth.

What are water temperatures right now around Texas?

Sea surface temperatures around the world.
Sea surface temperatures around the world.

According to Yale Climate Connections, sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean are now hotter than any previous late May on record. The extent of marine heat surpasses the previous late May record set in 2005 — a year known for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.

Atlantic temperatures in 2005 versus temperatures in 2024
Atlantic temperatures in 2005 versus temperatures in 2024

In 2005, Hurricane Rita reached Category 5 strength before eventually weakening to a Category 3 hurricane as it made landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border. The storm caused massive power outages, widespread damage, and 59 deaths. Its approach caused one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history, according to NOAA.

Live storm tracker: 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Names for the 2024 hurricane season

The NHC has listed names for the upcoming hurricane season.

Here is the list of hurricane names in alphabetical order:

  1. Alberto

  2. Beryl

  3. Chris

  4. Debby

  5. Ernesto

  6. Francine

  7. Gordon

  8. Helene

  9. Isaac

  10. Joyce

  11. Kirk

  12. Leslie

  13. Milton

  14. Nadine

  15. Oscar

  16. Patty

  17. Rafael

  18. Sara

  19. Tony

  20. Valerie

  21. William

What can Texans do to prepare for the hurricane season?

Here are some key things you should do and items you should have in case a hurricane hits your city. Be sure to have a disaster kit and an evacuation plan.

  • Water: one gallon per person, per day

  • Non-perishable food like canned or dry foods

  • A flashlight

  • A battery-powered or hand-crank radio

  • Extra batteries

  • First aid kit

  • Prescription medications and medical items

  • A multi-purpose tool that includes a screwdriver, a knife and pliers

  • Sanitation and personal hygiene items such as wet wipes

  • Copies of personal documents like medication lists, medical information, proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates and insurance policies

  • Cellphone with chargers and/ or a portable battery bank

  • Family and emergency contact information

  • Extra cash

  • Sleeping bag or warm blanket

  • Maps of your area

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NOAA predicts up to 13 hurricanes in 2024. What it means for Texas