NOAA predicts 'above-normal' 2024 hurricane season in new outlook. What it means for Texas

A rough hurricane season is predicted this year. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30 each year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2024 hurricane season outlook Thursday and explained the climate factors that influence hurricane development.

Meteorologists are predicting more than double the average number of tropical cyclones due to La Niña and near-record ocean temperatures.

According to Yale Climate Connections, hotter oceans could lead to more powerful storms this year.

Here’s what that means for Texas cities near the Gulf of Mexico:

What to expect in the 2024 hurricane season

NOAA predicted between 17 and 25 named storms this season, with eight to 13 becoming hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher. Forecasters also expect between four and seven major hurricanes, classified as Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

"The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation," NOAA said in its outlook.

What is rapid intensification in hurricanes?

According to forecasters from Colorado State University, record-setting sea surface temperatures alone do not ensure a busy hurricane season, but they significantly affect it.

This could mean more powerful hurricanes, which are known for rapid intensification.

The National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone by at least 35 mph within a 24-hour period. This rapid change can transform a relatively weak storm into a major hurricane, leading to increased threats to life and property due to stronger winds, higher storm surges and more intense rainfall.

Hurricanes derive their energy from warm ocean waters. Higher sea surface temperatures can provide more energy to fuel a storm's growth.

What are water temperatures right now around Texas?

According to Yale Climate Connections, sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean are now hotter than in any previous late May on record. The extent of marine heat surpasses the previous late May record set in 2005, a year known for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.

In 2005, Hurricane Rita reached Category 5 strength before eventually weakening to a Category 3 storm as it made landfall on the Texas-Louisiana border. The storm caused massive power outages, widespread damage and 59 deaths. Its approach caused one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history, according to NOAA.

Live storm tracker: 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Names for this hurricane season

The NHC has listed names for the upcoming hurricane season.

Here is the list of 2024 hurricane names in alphabetical order:

1. Alberto

2. Beryl

3. Chris

4. Debby

5. Ernesto

6. Francine

7. Gordon

8. Helene

9. Isaac

10. Joyce

11. Kirk

12. Leslie

13. Milton

14. Nadine

15. Oscar

16. Patty

17. Rafael

18. Sara

19. Tony

20. Valerie

21. William

What can Texans do to prepare for the hurricane season?

Here are some key things you should do and items you should have in case a hurricane hits your city. Be sure to have a disaster kit and an evacuation plan:

• Water: one gallon per person per day

• Nonperishable foods such as canned or dry items

• A flashlight

• A battery-powered or hand-cranked radio

• Extra batteries

• A first aid kit

• Prescription medications and medical items

• A multipurpose tool that includes a screwdriver, a knife and pliers

• Sanitation and personal hygiene items such as wet wipes

• Copies of personal documents such as medication lists, medical information, proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates and insurance policies

• A cellphone with chargers and/or a portable battery bank

• Family and emergency contact information

• Extra cash

• A sleeping bag or warm blanket

• Maps of your area

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NOAA predicts up to 13 hurricanes in 2024. What it means for Texas