NOAA Predicts 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Will be More Active Than Normal — Here's Why

Between 17 to 25 total named storms, including four to seven major hurricanes, are forecast for the season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its predictions for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which is expected to be more active than normal.

Forecasters with the National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict “an 85% chance of an above-normal season” in 2024, according to a news release from NOAA.

Between 17 to 25 total named storms, including four to seven major hurricanes, are forecast for the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

Near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and La Niña conditions in the Pacific are among the reasons behind the forecast, NOAA said. Reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear also played a role in the predictions.

Related: Record Water Temperatures Are Increasing Chances of Intense Hurricane Season

NOAA scientists currently predict “a quick transition to La Niña conditions” this year following what they said was “one of the strongest El Niños ever observed.”

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La Niña conditions can help spark Atlantic hurricane activity by lessening wind shear in the tropics, according to NOAA. Mix that with the “abundant” warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and it’s a recipe for potentially dangerous storms.

Related: 2 Killed in Weather-Related Crashes Minutes Apart amid Hurricane Idalia, Florida Highway Patrol Says

Forecasters also believe human-caused climate change leading to stronger storms, as well as an increased risk of storm surge.

Twenty named storms were recorded in 2023, making it the fourth-most active season on record, according to NOAA. However, Hurricane Idalia was the only hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. that year.

Related: Multiple People Dead, Dozens Injured After Tornado Strikes Small Town in Iowa: 'It's Awful'

The 2021 hurricane season is currently considered the third-most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history, with 21 named storms.

Americans are encouraged to be prepared. "Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today," said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks, per NOAA’s news release.

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According to the agency, the first name on the list of 2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names is Alberto.

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