NCAA Tournament picks: A tourney filled with upsets will yield a ‘chalky’ champion

Mark Story
·4 min read

Predicting the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament:

Final Four

▪ Connecticut. Danny Hurley’s Huskies are bidding for the first men’s NCAA championship repeat since Florida in 2006 and 2007. Even presented with a brutal region (see below), UConn has a really good chance to pull it off.

▪ Arizona. I picked Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats for last season’s Final Four — and they went out as a No. 2 seed to No. 15 Princeton in the round of 64. Stubborn that I am, I’m trying ‘Zona again.

▪ Houston. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars must bounce back from getting annihilated 69-41 by Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament finals and may have to survive an intense Lone Star state holy war vs. Texas A&M in the round of 32.

▪ Creighton. The top two seeds in the Midwest Region, Purdue and Tennessee, respectively, both carry the psychological baggage from multiple past NCAA tourney failures. So I’m taking a flier on Greg McDermott’s No. 3 seed Bluejays, who just missed cracking the Final Four last season.

National champion

▪ Connecticut will beat Houston. In an unpredictable season filled with chaos, won’t it be something when the two best teams actually end up playing for the national title.

Watch for the Houston Cougars, the No. 1 seed in the South Region, to be a difficult obstacle for Kentucky to overcome.
Watch for the Houston Cougars, the No. 1 seed in the South Region, to be a difficult obstacle for Kentucky to overcome.

Kentucky teams

▪ Kentucky. As the No. 3 seed in the South Region, John Calipari’s Wildcats will survive gritty No. 14 seed Oakland in the round of 64; win a tense round-of-32 meeting with No. 6 seed Texas Tech; overcome UK’s historical NCAA tourney nemesis Marquette, the No. 2 seed, in the round of 16; and fall to No. 1 seed Houston in the round of eight.

▪ Morehead State. As the No. 14 seed in the East, Preston Spradlin’s Eagles will throw a scare into No. 3 seed Illinois before falling.

▪ Western Kentucky. In their first NCAA tourney appearance since 2013, Steve Lutz’s Hilltoppers, the No. 15 seed in the South, will fall to No. 2 seed Marquette.

Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year Riley Minix (22) led Morehead State to its second trip to the men’s NCAA Tournament since 2021.
Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year Riley Minix (22) led Morehead State to its second trip to the men’s NCAA Tournament since 2021.
Western Kentucky coach Steve Lutz has led the Hilltoppers to their first trip to the men’s NCAA Tournament since 2013.
Western Kentucky coach Steve Lutz has led the Hilltoppers to their first trip to the men’s NCAA Tournament since 2013.

Upset specials

▪ No. 13 seed Charleston will upset No. 4 seed Alabama in the West Region.

▪ No. 12 seed Grand Canyon will upset No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s in the West Region.

▪ No. 11 seed New Mexico will upset No. 6 seed Clemson in the West Region.

▪ No. 13 seed Samford will upset No. 4 seed Kansas in the Midwest Region.

▪ No. 12 seed James Madison will upset No. 5 seed Wisconsin in the South Region.

Bracket breakdown

1. If you average the NET Rankings for the top four seeds in each region, overall No. 1 seed Connecticut in the East Region appears to have been placed in easily the strongest region.

The average NET Ranking for the top four teams in the East is 7, followed by the West (8.75), the Midwest (10.25) and the South (10.75).

According to the NET Rankings, the two lowest-ranked teams that earned top four seeds were South Region No. 3 Kentucky, No. 19 in the NET, and Midwest Region No. 4 Kansas, No. 20 in the NET.

2. It has become accepted wisdom that the teams most likely to win the national championship can be found from among those ranked in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency in the Pomeroy Ratings.

This season, there are only four such teams — Connecticut (No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 11 in adjusted defensive efficiency); Houston (No. 17, No. 2), Auburn (No. 10, No. 4) and Arizona (No. 8, No. 12).

3. The Big 12 and the SEC tied for the most NCAA Tournament entrants with eight teams each.

This is the second straight year that the Southeastern Conference has gotten eight teams into the NCAA tourney.

The SEC has now had at least six teams in the past six NCAA Tournaments. That is a far cry from 2013-16, when the SEC had only three teams in the NCAA tourney three different times and had only five teams in the other year (2017).

4. Connecticut winning it all last season as a No. 4 seed was an anomaly. A No. 1 seed has won the NCAA Tournament in seven of the past 10 renewals, including five of the past six.

5. With Kentucky, Morehead State and Western Kentucky in the field of 68, this will be the first time since 2019 that the commonwealth has had as many as three teams in the men’s NCAA Tournament field.

The last time there was no team from the state of Kentucky in the men’s NCAA tourney was 1963.

John Calipari might be headed for the most scrutinized March in UK coaching history

Five things you need to know from UK’s 97-87 loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament

You know who deserves an apology? Kentucky basketball’s much-maligned Rupp Arena fans

He dethroned a ‘King.’ Travis Perry is the 2023 Kentucky Sports Figure of the Year.

At last, the drought is over. Kentucky is again producing high-level basketball talent.

The five most pivotal games on the 2024 Kentucky football schedule

Buckle up, Kentucky fans: SEC football as you have known it is gone in 2024

These three trends should worry Kentucky football coach Mark Stoops