National Hurricane Center tracks disturbance. Could it impact Florida Memorial Day weekend weather?
The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor a disturbance located southeast of Florida.
The system has a very low chance for development, and doesn't appear at this time to pose any threat to Florida.
The disturbance popped up in the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map the same day NOAA released its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Predictions from the National Hurricane Center, AccuWeather and Colorado State University all predict the season will be very active due to the combination of La Niña and extremely warm water temperatures. Both conditions favor the development of tropical cyclones.
The National Hurricane Center predicted 17 to 25 named storms this year, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms.
The official start of hurricane season is June 1, although tropical storms and hurricanes have formed earlier. Most pre-season storms formed in May.
The first named storm for 2024 will be Alberto.
What is Memorial Day weekend forecast for Florida?
The three-day Memorial Day holiday weekend is expected to be hot and mostly dry across Florida. Many areas could see near-record high temperatures and a heat index ranging from 100 to 107.
Some areas could see some isolated storms Saturday. A cold front is expected to move into the Panhandle late Monday and reach Central Florida Tuesday. Don't expect temperatures to drop much. "It'll still feel like summer," said Brendan Schaper, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Melbourne.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. May 24:
What is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Tropical disturbance: A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles to the northeast of the central Bahamas. An area of low pressure is expected to form within thissystem roughly halfway between Bermuda and Hispaniola later today.
Although environmental conditions are not conducive, some slight subtropical or tropical development is possible over the next couple of days while the system moves northeast.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
Will Florida be impacted by the tropical disturbance?
At this time, it doesn't appear the disturbance will have any impact on Florida, Schaper said. The system's disorganized showers and thunderstorms are drifting northeast away from Florida.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC tracking tropical disturbance. What's Florida's weather impact?
