National Hurricane Center not expecting tropical activity as Memorial Day weekend kicks off
The tropics are expected to remain quiet for the Memorial Day weekend, according to forecasters from the National Hurricane Center.
No tropical cyclone activity is expected by the NHC in the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea over the next two days.
The official start of hurricane season is June 1 and is expected to be an active one. Extremely warm water temperatures and La Nina Niña combine for favorable tropical cyclone conditions.
Colorado State University has predicted the probability of a named storm impacting Florida this season at 96%, hurricane impact at 75% and major hurricane impact at 44%.
WeatherTiger chief meteorologist Ryan Truchelut's hurricane season forecast includes:
22-26 tropical storms
10-13 hurricanes
5-8 major hurricanes, which is a Category 3 storm or higher
an 80% chance of at least two U.S. hurricane landfalls in 2024
Memorial Day weekend weather forecast for Florida
Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected in the Sunshine State over the holiday weekend but a few storms could pop up Saturday. Above-normal temperatures may have some areas seeing heat indices of up to 107 degrees and a cold front is expected to move into the Panhandle and North Florida on Monday.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m., May 25, 2024:
What is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Here's NHC's outlook Saturday, based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis:
Tropical wave: A tropical wave is along 57W from 12N southward, moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis S of 10N between 50W-57W. The wave will crossthe Windward Islands today with gusty winds and active weather.
Gulf of Mexico: High pressure over the region will begin to shift ESE starting Sun. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere are expected to continue through the weekend, except for winds becoming light and variable over most of the eastern Gulf through early next week. A cold front will move across the NE Gulf from late Tue through Wed night, followed by gentle to moderate west to NW winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through the period.
Caribbean Sea: A middle to upper level trough will lift E-NE across Hispaniola through tonight. Active weather east of the trough will gradually shift NE into the Atlantic through tonight. Generally moderate trade winds are expected across the basin, except for fresh to strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Tue night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast to develop over the central Caribbean Mon through Wed. The tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands late this afternoon into tonight, move through the E Caribbean Sun through Mon night, then become ill-defined as it approaches the central Caribbean Tue. Gusty winds and active weather are expected with the wave. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America may persist across the Gulf of Honduras over the weekend.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: NHC outlook, FL weather: Tropics quiet. Hot, mostly dry days ahead
