The Midterms Minute: is the Democrats' 'blue wall' being rebuilt?

In today’s politics news: Dems poised to pick up six in Pennsylvania; Bill Clinton persona non grata; early voting surpasses 2014

Good evening, I’m Ben Jacobs with the latest from Washington and beyond. If you’re not already receiving the midterms minute by email, sign up.

Pennsylvania key for Democrats

Democrats are poised to pick up as many as six seats in Pennsylvania after redistricting reversed a Republican gerrymander and a slate of weak GOP statewide candidates have failed to appeal to swing voters.

Does this mean ‘the blue wall’ is being rebuilt? It certainly bolsters Democratic hopes of winning a key state that Trump narrowly won in 2016, particularly as Democrats are poised toperform strongly in suburban areas outside Philadelphia.

Does this have long-term consequences? Incumbent governor Tom Wolf is likely to win easily which means Pennsylvania Democrats can prevent a similar gerrymander in 2020 even if the GOP retains control of the state legislature. The result is likely to make Democratic congressional gains last into the next decade.

Bill who?

Bill Clnton is no longer an in-demand surrogate on the campaign trail. Clinton is making only a handful of appearances in the midterms, a stark change from his once constant presence on the campaign trail for embattled Democrats.

Is this #MeToo-related? Yes, the baggage of scandals from the 1990s looks entirely different in the modern era. Clinton already faced diminished status on the campaign trail in 2016 during his wife’s unsuccessful bid for the White House.

Early voting soaring

In 17 states already, early voting has surpassed tallies from the 2014 midterms including key swing states like Florida and Nevada.

Does this mean turnout will increase? It seems likely as 2014 had the lowest turnout for any midterm election in over a half century and it’s a sign of increased interest this time around.

Are these new voters? Some are. However, early voting has increased in every election and many of the ballots cast are from regular votes who are simply showing up at the polls earlier.

Poll of the day

A new poll from Alaska Survey Research has Democrat Alyse Galvin ahead of Don Young, the longest-serving member of the House, by a margin of 49-48.

Can Democrats win? Unlikely. Alaska is notoriously the most difficult state in the nation to poll and Young, first elected in 1973, is the longest-serving member of Congress for a reason. However, Young has only won his past two races with just over 50% of the vote.

Ad of the day

Republican Steve King is finally on the air only days before the election with an ad that he has recycled from his 2014 campaign. King, who represents a safe Republican seat in western Iowa, has been plunged into controversy for his repeated racially charged statements including support for a racist fringe candidate for mayor of Toronto. Recently a slew of top Republicans have renounced him.

Is he in trouble? Although King is likely to narrowly pull out a victory due to the Republican lean of the district and the significant number of early votes that have been cast, it’s likely to be a single-digit race against Democrat JD Scholten.