The limits of Biden’s one-on-one diplomacy with Netanyahu

In multiple calls and meetings since Oct. 7, the Netanyahu government told their American counterparts they would open humanitarian aid routes into Gaza — but that they would do so solely because Washington asked.

“We’re going to say the Americans requested it,” one senior Israeli official said this year, as relayed by a senior Biden administration official.

President Joe Biden has been leveraging his decades-long familiarity with Benjamin Netanyahu to move the Israeli leader, who faced his own domestic pressure to appear hawkish, in directions he didn’t necessarily want. In this case, to pry crossings open and boost the amount of food, water and medicine available to Palestinians in Gaza.

“Their talks are very candid,” said the senior official, like others granted anonymity to detail a sensitive relationship. “They skip past the diplomatic formalities and go right into the substance and work things out on the calls all the time.”

The limits of that one-on-one strategy are being tested, however. This week, Netanyahu abruptly canceled a planned visit of Israeli officials to D.C. to discuss guardrails for a planned Rafah invasion, backing off a pledge he’d made directly to Biden in a recent phone call.

That fed into a growing sense in Washington — even among those who have long backed Biden’s approach — that his reliance on a personal relationship with Netanyahu is no longer enough to navigate the Israel-Gaza crisis.

“Biden stuck with the idea of bringing Bibi around for five months,” said Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations and an official in both Bush administrations, using Netanyahu’s nickname. “He has precious little to show for it.”

But on Wednesday, Netanyahu reversed course. A U.S. official familiar with the matter relayed that the prime minister’s office had said they’d like to reschedule the meeting to Rafah. That about-face came after what the official described as “constructive discussions with Israel's defense minister over the last two days.”

The chaotic nature of the diplomacy suggests that Netanyahu realized he overplayed his hand. But others see it as evidence that the Israeli PM has more calculations at stake than his personal connection with the president.

“Relationships don’t matter to people when personal survival is at stake,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Middle East panel. “Lots of people shed friendships in order to survive from one day to the next.”

The Biden administration complains that not enough humanitarian aid gets into Gaza, that Israeli forces killed too many innocent people and that Netanyahu has his sights set on the destruction of Hamas, which U.S. officials say is possible militarily but not ideologically.

And while Biden administration officials insist frank talks with Netanyahu are still a major part of their strategy on Israel, they’re also increasingly using other — more public — levers that would have been out of bounds a few months ago.

Over the weekend, Vice President Kamala Harris refused to rule out “consequences” if Israel embarks on a major ground invasion of Rafah. On Monday, the U.S. allowed a U.N. resolution calling for a cease-fire to pass after vetoing previous measures for being too harsh on Israel or lenient on Hamas.

That’s in part because of a growing sense inside the administration that domestic pressure against Netanyahu is increasing and he has less power to make changes to policy — even if he makes promises to Biden in a conversation.

Biden administration officials suspect Netanyahu canceled the Israeli delegation not over the U.S. decision to allow the U.N. resolution to pass, as Netanyahu said, but rather to boost his standing at home. A bill to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews into military service has threatened to bring Netanyahu’s government down, causing him to backtrack on parts of the measure that same day.

“Watch what Bibi does more than focus on what he says,” said a U.S. official. “Bibi needs to not look like he is shifting even when he has to move.”

The shift has also come amid mounting pressure from Congress to take more public actions to rein in Israel.

A group of 17 Senate Democrats last week stated that Israel’s slowdown of aid into Gaza could be reason enough to withhold certain arms sales to the ally. Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Biden’s closest confidant in Congress’ upper chamber, said he’s open to conditioning military aid if Israel launches an all-out invasion of Rafah.

Multiple pro-Israel Democrats have privately told POLITICO animosity toward Netanyahu has spread among them on Capitol Hill, capped by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s address this month calling for new elections in Israel. The partisan divide could widen if House Republicans ask Netanyahu to address Congress, which would be seen by many Democrats and some administration officials as a reward for bad behavior.

“There’s open conflict between the U.S. administration and Israeli government because Bibi wants it,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), a member of the Israel Allies Caucus. “It’s in his political interests to pick this fight, to be perceived domestically as ‘tough’ and standing up to the U.S. As long as this Netanyahu coalition is in government then the bilateral conflict will continue.”

But direct dealings with Netanyahu, or any foreign leader, is the lifeblood of Biden’s foreign policy approach. Some say there should be a transfusion.

“Almost all presidents tend to exaggerate the importance of personal relationships,” said Haass, the former CFR chief. “It’s an assumption that doesn’t often pan out.”

Eugene Daniels contributed to this report.