Labour ‘set to lose in West Midlands’

Labour is set to lose the West Midlands mayoral election because of anger among Muslim voters over its stance on Gaza, party sources fear.

Insiders warned that a marked shift in support amongst the city’s Muslim population could cost them their chance of victory.

They said Muslim voters had swung heavily behind an independent candidate, backed by George Galloway, who campaigned predominantly on Gaza.

A failure to unseat Andy Street, the Tory mayor of the West Midlands, would represent a setback for Sir Keir Starmer after otherwise good local elections for his party.

A loss would raise more questions over how his stance on Gaza, especially his early refusal to back a ceasefire, has damaged Labour’s standing among Muslims.

While the election took place on Thursday, the votes are not set to be counted until Saturday, when the result will be announced at around 3pm.

Surveys ahead of the race suggested that it was neck-and-neck with Richard Parker, the Labour candidate, polling just two points behind Mr Street.

But it appears the Labour campaign has been derailed by Akhmed Yakoob, the independent who has been backed by Mr Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain.

Before the race, the 36-year-old lawyer was best known for his presence on TikTok, the video-sharing app, where he has more than 184,000 followers.

Labour sources said he was now expected to come third in some areas of the West Midlands, siphoning enough votes from Labour to cost the party victory.

Mr Galloway said: “Our candidate in the West Midlands looks like he may have cost Labour the mayoralty. I said Keir Starmer would pay a high price for his betrayal on Palestine. Today is the start of that.”

One Labour source said it was not yet clear whether the surge in support for Mr Yakoob was as a result of defections from Labour or his attracting people who did not previously vote.

Another source told the BBC: “It’s the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.”

Following a backlash, Labour distanced itself from the anonymous quote, which it said had not been authorised centrally.

A spokesman said: ‘The Labour party has strongly condemned this racist quote, which has not come from anyone who is speaking on behalf of the party or whose values are welcome in the party.’

Another source said that, without a single vote counted, it was far too early to make such predictions and dismissed the reports as speculation.

Labour has poured significant resources into unseating Mr Street, one of the poster boys of local Tory government.

Failure to win the mayoralty would represent another blow after Labour lost control of Oldham council and struggled for support in Bolton and parts of Newcastle.

In all three places, it faced challenges from pro-Palestinian independents and the Greens, who have called for an arms export embargo on Israel.

Defeated councillors in Oldham said anger over Sir Keir’s stance on Gaza had been a decisive factor in the loss of several seats to independents.

Darren Jones, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, admitted the loss of support amongst Muslim voters was worrying for the party.

He told LBC: “We’re very sad about that. There’s no denying that in some parts of the country, where some independent candidates have run for the first time, they’ve attracted voters that we would want in the Labour family.

“That shows we’ve got more work to do to listen to and learn from and support voters across the country and try to persuade them to vote for Labour when they get the chance.”

The leader of Bolton council blamed a “backlash as a result of the Gaza crisis” as Labour failed to make breakthroughs, instead losing two seats.

Nick Peel told the Bolton News: “As a direct result of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Palestine, many South Asian voters have not supported Labour or the Conservatives.”

Analysis for Sky News by Prof Will Jennings, an elections expert, showed Labour has lost votes across the country in areas with high Muslim populations.

In neighbourhoods with a Muslim population smaller than two per cent, its average vote share has gone up by an average of 1.5 per cent compared with last year.

In council wards where more than five per cent of the population identifies as Muslim, the party has suffered reverses, seeing its support decline by 2.2 per cent.

Momentum, the Left-wing group that supported Jeremy Corbyn, said it showed Muslim voters were punishing Labour for its approach to the conflict in Gaza.

A Momentum spokesman said: “These losses should set alarm bells ringing in Labour HQ. Any party which takes its core vote for granted risks disaster sooner or later.

“Starmer should respond by getting off the fence and calling for a suspension of arms sales to Israel, as other parties have done, and unreservedly condemning Israel’s ongoing war crimes in Gaza and the West Bank.”

It comes after Mr Parker’s campaign was rocked by the eve-of-election revelation that police were looking at claims he wrongly put down where he was living to get on the ballot paper.

West Midlands Police said it was “assessing” allegations that the Labour candidate may have breached electoral law after receiving a complaint from a local Conservative MP.

Official nomination papers show that Mr Parker declared a rented flat in central Birmingham as his address for the election. But he has publicly admitted that his family home is situated in a village a quarter of a mile outside the West Midlands Combined Authority area.

A spokesman for Mr Parker dismissed the claims as “shameful political game-playing”.