What will Knox County's population be in 2045? How 2 key predictions differ

Silas Sloan, Knoxville News Sentinel
Updated ·4 min read
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Knox County is predicted to have explosive growth in the next 20 years and beyond. But by how much? And how are those predictions made?

Nobody has a crystal ball, but local governments and organizations mostly use projections from the Knoxville Regional Transportation Planning Organization or the University of Tennessee Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

Their estimates differ slightly, but on this they agree: By 2045, expect there to be around 80,000 more people in Knox County than there are in 2024.

It's not that shocking because Knox County – population 493,617 in 2024, according to the Boyd Center – has become a popular place to move to. In the past year, you've probably heard the phrase "the secret is out," from many an elected official.

The growing population is evidenced by businesses like Welcome Wagon popping up. The business is back in East Tennessee after a pandemic-induced hiatus, bringing new homeowners and renters information on businesses and services offered in the area.

Colleen Mayberry, Welcome Wagon community marketing executive, estimated there could be 1,000 new homeowners a month in East Tennessee from Clinton to Gatlinburg.

"Once you find out this town's secret of all the great outdoor activities, it is a place one can easily call home," Mayberry said in an email.

Knox County population prediction from Knoxville Regional TPO

The Mobility Plan 2045 projects the population of East Tennessee counties through 2045. The region is expected to add more than 200,000 people by 2045.
The Mobility Plan 2045 projects the population of East Tennessee counties through 2045. The region is expected to add more than 200,000 people by 2045.

2045 Knox County population projection: 570,352

Knoxville Regional TPO's projection comes from its Mobility Plan 2045, which projects the population through 2045.

This is the population estimate that's used by the City of Knoxville, Knox County and Knoxville-Knox County Planning. It also was used to forecast the 2040 population cited in Advance Knox, a new plan that will guide growth for the next 20 years.

Knoxville TPO's projections come from Woods and Poole Economics, a Washington economic and population data firm, Knox Planning Information Services Manager Terry Gilhula told Knox News.

Woods and Poole has projections through 2060 for every county in the U.S., according to its website. It takes into account specific local conditions based on historical data from 1969 to 2021. Its 10-year projection margin of error at the county level is ±8.1%.

Gilhula said when the mobility plan was adopted in 2021, planning compared the Woods and Poole data to the Boyd Center Data, which differed by only 0.3%. Knox Planning chose the Woods and Poole data because it forecasted several demographic indicators rather than just population.

That forecast has other annual population projections for Knox County:

  • 2035: 535,601

  • 2040: 557,000

  • 2050: 587,770

Knox County population prediction from UT Boyd Center

2045 Knox County population projection: 577,721

The Boyd Center updates its projections every two years for all 95 counties in Tennessee. It's used by most regional planning commissions across the state, said Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics Matt Harris.

Knox County has had an annual growth rate of 1.16% since 2019, according to the Boyd Center.
Knox County has had an annual growth rate of 1.16% since 2019, according to the Boyd Center.

Harris said the Boyd Center uses a cohort-component methodology, which accounts for the current population's age, race and gender. Those factors are used to predict birth rates, death rates and life expectancy. Rates and expectancy come from agencies like the Tennessee Department of Health, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The center also uses historical trends in population gain to further inform its projections.

"Depending on if you're a Peter Pan or a Battlestar Galactica fan, the science boils down to 'all of this has happened before and all this will happen again,'" Harris said. "We're using recent trends in the past, and the assumption is those trends are going to continue in the future."

Essentially, data from a bunch of different agencies is collected and turned into one report at the Boyd Center.

Further out, the Boyd Center projects Knox County will have 685,291 residents by 2070.

What about the US Census population for Knox County?

The U.S. Census Bureau is a valuable data tool used by both the Boyd Center and the Mobility Plan.

The Census estimated Knox County had 500,669 people as of July 1, 2023. That's a little over 5,000 more people than the July 1, 2022, estimate.

However, the Census Bureau only has population projections on a national level and hasn't released projections on the state or county levels.

The Census provides links at census.gov to population projections made by states.

What will Knox County's population be in 20 years?

Both the Boyd Center and Mobility Plan offer similar projections. They differ by fewer than 7,500 people, about 1,000 more people than it takes to fill the seats at the Knoxville Civic Auditorium and Coliseum, home to the Ice Bears hockey team and many concerts.

So you could pick either one of the estimates or expect something in between.

No matter what, it's a safe bet to assume you're going to have plenty of new neighbors in the next two decades and beyond.

Silas Sloan is the growth and development reporter. Email silas.sloan@knoxnews.com. Twitter @silasloan. Instagram @knox.growth.

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Knox County's population will look quite different by 2045.
Knox County's population will look quite different by 2045.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Knox County population growth as people move to Knoxville