How the Kansas Jayhawks can avoid an upset against 3-point sharpshooting Samford

The No. 4-seeded Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team will face the No. 13 Samford Bulldogs in the first round of the NCCA Tournament on Thursday.

The Jayhawks (22-10, 10-8 Big 12) lost to Cincinnati in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament last Wednesday, so they’ve had ample time to rest.

Samford, meanwhile, is coming off a victory over East Tennessee State for the Southern Conference Tournament championship.

Here is a scouting report and prediction for Thursday night’s game:

No. 4 seed Kansas vs. No. 13 seed Samford

When/where: 8:55 p.m., Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

TV/streaming: TBS.

Opponent’s record: Samford is 29-5.

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 81.

Betting line: Kansas is a 7.5-point favorite.

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Samford’s team strengths

• Quality offense: The Bulldogs rank No. 7 in effective field goal percentage (56.9). Meanwhile, Kansas ranks No. 55 in the same category.

• Long-ball lovers: Samford shoots a blistering 39.3% on 3-pointers, ranking No. 8 nationally. The Bulldogs also rank No. 89 in 3-point rate (40.9%).

• Efficient inside the arc: Samford ranks No. 20 in two-point percentage (55.5).

• Lots of depth: The Bulldogs lean heavily on their bench, ranking No. 3 in bench-minutes percentage (44.3).

Samford’s team weaknesses

• Rebounding: Samford struggles to keep opponents off the offensive glass, ranking No. 313 in opponent offensive rebound percentage (32).

• Turnover prone: The Bulldogs rank No. 256 in turnover percentage (18.1).

• Weak schedule: Samford’s strength of schedule ranks No. 268 nationally.

• On the shorter side: The Bulldogs rank No. 349 in average player height (about 6-foot-3).

Samford’s name to know

6–foot-9 junior forward Achor Achor (No. 14)

+ Leading scorer (15.8 points per game)

+ Good rebounder (6.1 per game)

+ Elite shooter (shooting 44.6% beyond the 3-point line)

- Bad free-throw shooter (shooting 71.5%)

- Turnover prone (2 per game)

- Not much of a passer (1.5 assists per game)

Tale of the Tape

Samford is a dangerous team in transition, with 42.7% of their shots in transition coming on 3-pointers. The Bulldogs shot 36.9% on those 3-point attempts.

Here, the Samford guard steals the ball and immediately runs upcourt. He then passes to Jaden Campbell, who drains a 3-pointer. Campbell is shooting 47.2% from deep, so KU needs to keep an eye on him.

Overall, the Jayhawks must hustle back in transition and ensure defenders don’t get pulled into the paint, because Samford is deadly outside. Don’t be surprised if KU turns to a 1-2-2 zone to counter those 3-point attempts.

Game prediction

If Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar are healthy, Samford’s odds of pulling of an upset drop dramatically.

That said, it could still happen. The Bulldogs fit the profile of teams that have given KU fits all year. The Bulldogs are an excellent 3-point-shooting team that will take, and make, a lot of them.

Still, Samford is undersized and rebounding is not a forte. That bodes well for Dickinson and the Jayhawks. As long as Samford doesn’t get out to a big lead by raining 3-pointers early, I think the Jayhawks will be fine in this one.

Kansas 78, Samford 69.

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-7.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 23-7

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 14-16

KU Player to watch: Dajuan Harris

There’s one thing that holds true whether McCullar and/or Dickinson plays or not: KU simply needs more from star point guard Dajuan Harris.

Harris has had three straight games with single-digit points, which isn’t great considering how stagnant the Jayhawks’ offense can get. He needs to not only defend the Bulldogs’ red-hot shooters well but be aggressive on offense and look for his shot.

That means taking open 3-pointers, as it’ll help space out the floor for Kansas. A locked-in Harris would do wonders for KU’s hopes of making another March run.