It’s time for Manchester City to go all in

All professional sports teams in competitive leagues go through two different stages, the win now stage, and the rebuild stage. Any competitive league will inevitably filter teams into a spectrum, with extreme rebuilders on one side, and the all in clubs on the other. The more competitive the league, the most distinct the stages are. The general strategy of the club should be what governs the overall strategy of the club, and it is under these circumstances front offices should in theory make their critical in-season decisions. Looking at the current circumstances of the Premier League, it is pretty obvious that Manchester City should be pushing all in right now. Let’s look at the theory behind this strategy, and exactly why it is time for City to go all in.

So what do I mean by rebuild vs win now? Fundamentally, rebuilding teams are those who are looking towards the future. Rebuilding teams should prioritize future success over present performance, rebuilding teams should give more opportunities to young players, and they should be willing to take more risks on the transfer market with low floor, high ceiling type players. From the perspective of a rebuilding team, the marginal value of a point right now is much smaller than the value of a potential point in the future. Thus rebuilding teams should be giving opportunities with prospects and well, not let aging veterans hog up the playing time.

On the other hand, win-now teams are those whose goal is to win as much as possible. So from a strategy standpoint, they should be pursuing the aging superstars with a few good games left in them, the in-form players, and the players who are currently in their prime. Since each win is worth the most for a win now team, future potential is a much smaller concern compared to what a player can do in the present.

What does a rebuilding team look like? Let’s be honest here, most Premier League teams are stuck in mid table mediocrity (it’s not exactly hard to guess who is going to make top four every season), and thus most teams operate with a rebuilding mentality. Manchester United towards the end of Ferguson’s tenure is the classic “win now” team. They were squeezing the last bits of productivity from their aging defenders while bringing in Robin van Persie, a risky injury prone striker who was in his prime (and as we saw later, didn’t have that many good years left in him). The classic win now move was when Scholes was pulled out of retirement instead of relying on Pogba, after all, when a team is going all in, it is the present that is the focus, win trophies now instead of gamble on a chance to win trophies in the future.

Fundamentally, the overall strategy that a team should pursue is dictated by the state of the team itself and the league surrounding it. Some clubs like Olympiacos and Celtic can win their league with relative ease even if they are pursuing a rebuilding strategy season after season. In less competitive leagues, strong teams don’t really have to go “all in”, since they are just so much stronger compared to the competition, they really don’t have to go all in. However, with extremely competitive league like the Premier League, clubs have to decide on a strategy and make the right moves to compete for and win the title.

If we believe that the peak of a footballer is between 24 and 30, we can see that the Majority of the Manchester City team is currently within their age 24 and 30 seasons. This is extremely rare, and Manchester City have some of the most “concentrated” talent in the league. Most City players are in their prime right now, and this gives us a great “window” of contention. The club should be pushing to capitalize on this opportunity since the spine of the team will be declining rapidly soon.

Manchester City is tied for the oldest team in the Premier League. The midfield is anchored by Yaya Toure and Fernandinho, two older midfielders who are at their peak. Toure in particular is troubling, as a box to box midfielder who heavily leans on his physicality and strength, his playstyle does not age well and I do believe that he is on the tail end of his peak and finding another world class box to box midfielder to replace Toure will be extremely difficult.

The Premier League on the other hand, is extremely competitive, but you can strongly argue that City is the strongest team in the league. Chelsea’s collapse has given City a pretty clear path to the title. By no means however, is the Premier League a cakewalk. United and Arsenal will challenge, although I do still believe that City has the best chance to win the league.

This is why I believe City should be going all in right now. The team in its current iteration will probably never be stronger, and their path to the title is pretty clear. What does going all in mean for Manchester City? Well They should focus on improving the team now, secure the league title, and bring home any other trophies they can. I am OK with the club bringing in instant outside help right now instead of dipping into the academy to fill any holes the club may have. They should be bringing in the players in their prime right now to supplement the team. The future can wait, and to quote John Cena, “The Time is now!”