Israel’s allies renew push for Gaza ceasefire as fears mount over Rafah invasion

Semafor Signals

Supported by

Insights from The Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, Haaretz, and Al-Monitor

The News

Western powers launched a renewed diplomatic push for a ceasefire in Gaza amid growing concerns that the Israel Defense Forces will soon invade the crowded Gazan city of Rafah.

Top US and British diplomats met Arab officials in Riyadh on Monday while US President Joe Biden reportedly spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday evening about closing a hostage-release deal with Hamas.

Representatives from Israel and Hamas are expected to meet in Cairo for talks Monday. The “atmosphere is positive unless there are new Israeli obstacles,” an official from Hamas told AFP on Sunday, adding that the group had “no major issues” with the latest draft of a hostage-release proposal.

SIGNALS

Roughly 1.5% of Gaza’s population killed in the war

Sources:  The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press

The Israel-Hamas war has inflicted a massive humanitarian toll on Gaza, with Palestinian health officials noting that more than 34,000 people have been killed in the enclave during the conflict so far. As many as 70% of them are women and children. Authorities are facing difficulties estimating the scale of the war’s civilian toll because the health system has collapsed, and teams are struggling to reach people trapped underneath rubble. “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the end [the death toll] is an underestimate,” Rik Peeperkorn, a World Health Organization representative, told The Wall Street Journal. If the IDF launches an invasion of Rafah, a crowded city where more than 1 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering, the death toll could rise substantially.

Israeli, Hamas top brass may face war crimes charges

Source:  Haaretz

The International Criminal Court may be preparing charges for Hamas leaders over the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, as well as top Israeli officials for war crimes committed in Gaza, Haaretz reported. Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and IDF chief of staff Herzl Halevi are all facing possible ICC arrest warrants. Israeli officials have triggered global outrage for the sometimes inflammatory rhetoric they have used to describe Palestinians in Gaza: Foreign Minister Israel Katz once suggested cutting off Gaza’s water supply, and Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli mused about using nuclear weapons on the enclave. Their statements back the argument “that Israel intentionally harms, starves and expels civilians from Gaza, and is even trying to annihilate the Palestinians as a group,” Eliav Lieblich, of Tel Aviv University, told Haaretz.

Netanyahu seeing slight polling bump

Source:  Al-Monitor

Israel’s leadership saw its support tumble in the months since the war began, but recent polling shows Netanyahu has seen a slight bump in support, Al-Monitor reported. “Netanyahu has not only stemmed the bleeding, but has actually grown stronger,” columnist Mazal Mualem noted. The prime minister has a long history of political savvy, she added, and is often able to turn the public mood back to his favor after periods of mistrust. Among supporters of his Likud party, that support is often stronger: “The more Netanyahu angers his opponents, the greater the support he engenders,” Mualem wrote.