Irish Vote Should Not Be Until 2025, Finance Minister Says

Olivia Fletcher and Stephen Carroll
·2 min read

(Bloomberg) -- An Irish election should be pushed back until as late as possible, the country’s finance minister said, as the incumbent government tries to fend off Sinn Fein, the increasingly popular left-wing party that has never governed in the Republic before.

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“My own view is that we should go toward the end point,” meaning nearer March 2025, the cut-off point for a vote to be held, Michael McGrath told Bloomberg’s Stephen Carroll in a TV interview. He added that he expects to deliver the country’s next budget this fall.

Ireland has seen strong domestic growth despite declining and volatile corporation tax receipts from the large number of multinational companies located there. It’s been touted as the poster child for recovering from the global financial crash: it is on its way to being repaid the bailout money borrowed by banks, and is establishing a sovereign wealth fund from corporation tax receipts to protect against future shocks.

Now the government is considering removing the crisis-era bonus cap for AIB Group Plc and wants sell down its stake in the lender further, McGrath said, as he believes the running of banks is ultimately a commercial matter. Ireland will continue seeking opportunities to sell down its stake and “I envisage that there will be some in the coming months,” he added.

There could be a change in policies though if Sinn Fein, currently the largest party in Ireland, is elected into government in the elections, as opinion polls suggest. The party has risen in popularity with alternative proposals to tackle housing and other social issues especially among young voters who have no memory of its past links to the Irish Republican Army.

Although the party slumped in an Irish Times poll in February, it is still 8% ahead of government coalition party Fianna Fail, which McGrath is a member of.

Sinn Fein criticized the government in 2022 when plans to lift the bonus cap for the Bank of Ireland were introduced, while a question mark remains over whether it supports reducing the state’s remaining stakes in the lenders. Its leader Mary Lou McDonald also raised eyebrows in real estate circles recently when she suggested she would like to see the average price of a home in Dublin come down.

While it is clear that some of Sinn Fein’s policy proposals are gaining popularity as voters eye change, McGrath believes that the current three-party coalition government has a “good chance” of being reelected.

A strong economy, McGrath said, “is a good message we can bring to people while acknowledging that there are challenges.”

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