Hunt on the Hot Seat to Deliver on Budget: Sunday UK Briefing

Ros Krasny
·3 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Hello again. Here’s what we’re talking about heading into the new week.

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The big numbers: UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivers a crucial budget on Wednesday. He said Sunday it will be “prudent,” tempering expectations of vote-enhancing tax cuts before a general election almost certain to happen this year. The chancellor is hemmed in by the weak state of UK public finances and Bloomberg Economics assumes a fiscal giveaway of £10 billion or less. “Despite talk of pre-election sweeteners, the big picture is that the tax burden, especially for workers, is set to rise in future years,” say economists Dan Hanson and Ana Andrade.

The big impact: What does the budget mean in the real world — and by real world, we mean the stock market? Joe Easton and Kit Rees outline which companies are seen as most likely to benefit from any potential Tory giveaways, including homebuilders, retailers and investment platforms.

The big results: Earnings season is winding down, but several German heavyweights are due to report, from aspirin-maker Bayer to automotive supplier Continental, fashion house Hugo Boss, and airline Deutsche Lufthansa. Separately, the carrier is warning it’s prepared to walk away from its planned purchase of ITA Airways — the successor to Alitalia — if EU antitrust demands are too prohibitive. On a brighter note, just in time for chocolate-bunny season, Switzerland’s Lindt may show some earnings momentum, even with cocoa prices soaring and shortages expected to persist.

The big meeting: The European Central Bank meets Thursday and is set to keep rates on hold. Policymakers will unveil their first quarterly forecasts of the year, which may show that they’re moving closer toward delivering a cut in coming months. Whatever they do will be closely scrutinized ahead of the next Bank of England meeting on March 21, with the BOE’s chief economist warning once again about a “false sense of security” on inflation.

The big drink: British drinkers who mourned the loss of the Crooked House when the 260-year-old Midlands pub was demolished last year may be in luck. Local authorities have ordered the pub’s owners to rebuild it, brick by brick, exactly as it was. While it’s not exactly the Leaning Tower of Pisa, the establishment had a distinctive list that could prove a challenge to 21st century builders.

The big hearing: The London Assembly on Wednesday gets a progress report, a year after an independent review was finished on the “standards of behavior and internal culture of the Metropolitan Police Service.” Since the review was delivered by Baroness Casey, and especially since the start of the war in Gaza and related demonstrations, the situation around policing and protests has become ever more fraught.

The big race: New year, just like the old year. Three-time reigning world champion Max Verstappen didn’t lose a step during the off-season and blasted to an impressive win in Saturday’s season-opening Formula 1 race in Bahrain. This will be the longest ever F1 season, with 24 events in total; next up is Saudi Arabia on March 19.

The big game: England has already lost its cricket series against India but will suit up again on Thursday in Dharamsala for a fifth and final test and possibly some redemption. Oddsmakers aren’t so optimistic.

ICYM our Big Take: Prince Albert of Monaco’s government, already under scrutiny for failing to clamp down on financial crime, faces a police investigation into corruption and conflicts of interest involving a rogue nephew, Gaspard Sebag and Anthony Cormier report in their deep-dive. The tiny, wealthy nation is now bracing for two looming reports by international watchdogs looking into money laundering and other shady dealings.

And finally, on our latest In the City podcast, Stephanie Baker, a senior reporter on Bloomberg’s investigations team, discusses PM Rishi Sunak’s recent call to give proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine — and whether such a maneuver would be legal. It’s all about the “financial engineering,” she says.

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