Is this the hottest May in Bradenton history? What the forecasts say about record heat

Ryan Ballogg
·3 min read
4

This May is on course to be one of the hottest ever recorded in Bradenton, and forecasters say this summer could have more exceptional heat in store.

As of Tuesday, it’s the second-hottest May in the Sarasota-Bradenton area since records began in 1911, according to Stephen Shiveley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office in Ruskin.

“If we keep this hot trend going, it could be the hottest May on record for Bradenton-Sarasota,” Shiveley said.

With temperatures set to keep scooting upward this weekend, it’s looking likely.

Daytime temperatures in Manatee County are breaching the 90s this week, and the heat index is set to break the 100-degree mark for several days starting this weekend.

Shiveley said it’s typical for the Tampa Bay area to experience very hot, dry and sunny days this time of year until the rainy season arrives — usually around mid-June. But late spring temperatures have been unusually sweltering around the region.

Tampa is also on course for a potential record month of heat, he said.

Record heat in Bradenton, forecast says

A summer shift to a pattern of sea breezes and rain storms could help cool things down a bit in June and July, Shiveley said.

“We just have to hope for the rainy season to start soon,” Shiveley said.

Last year, that didn’t happen due to a wind flow pattern that caused storms to form farther inland and push east, Shiveley said. It deprived Florida’s Gulf Coast of the rain and cooling benefits of our usual summer storms.

For the Bradenton-Sarasota area, the results were stark: 2023 was the driest year ever recorded, according to NWS data. It was also the third-warmest, with several months of record-breaking heat.

An El Niño weather pattern brought some relief in winter with less extreme temperatures and more rainfall. But that pattern is now ending, according to the NWS Climate Prediction Center. A La Niña pattern is expected to form this summer and bring a potentially more active Atlantic hurricane season along with it.

A map shows heat predictions for the U.S. in June, July and August of 2024, with Florida forecast to have above normal temperatures.
A map shows heat predictions for the U.S. in June, July and August of 2024, with Florida forecast to have above normal temperatures.

Local summer heat, rain predictions

Bradenton and Manatee County could continue to see hotter-than-normal days heading into the summer months, national forecasts show.

A seasonal temperature outlook for June-August from the Climate Prediction Center shows a 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures for much of the Southeast, including Florida.

However, some drought relief could be on the way for Central Florida.

Most of Manatee County is currently in a moderate drought, but additional forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center show a likely chance for above-normal summer rain levels and an end of the drought by August.

As the May hot streak continues, Shiveley said it’s important for those working or playing in the sun to stay hydrated and take lots of breaks from the heat.

“At least for the next week or so, there’s no improvement in sight,” Shiveley said.

Florida’s increasingly extreme temperatures are not occurring in isolation.

Average and extreme heat are increasing across the globe due to climate change caused by humans burning fossil fuels, according to the scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Without immediate efforts to curb greenhouse gases, extreme weather events spawned by global warming will continue to intensify, the IPCC says.