Holcomb’s legacy and popularity: stronger than some like to admit

Gov. Eric Holcomb addresses the General Assembly in January during his 2024 State of the State Address. (Monroe Bush for the Indiana Capital Chronicle)

Gov. Eric Holcomb is in the final months of his eight years leading the state, and his legacy is coming into focus. So is his popularity.

In the last few years — since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 — a loud group of ultra-conservative Republicans have demeaned Holcomb’s leadership and record. But a new poll from State Affairs/Howey Politics shows the governor remains popular within his party.

His approval rating among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents is 69%. That’s 10 percentage points higher than U.S. Sen. Mike Braun’s approval in the same poll, but not nearly as high as former President Donald Trump at 83%.

The real question is whether Holcomb’s popularity translates into lasting accomplishments. Over the years, Holcomb has established several key goals, and it’s time to see if they will come to fruition.

Grading the goals

One of Holcomb’s top priorities has been that 95% of students in third grade can read proficiently by 2027. Obviously, the progress can’t be measured yet, but a bill this year to increase literacy support and hold back third graders who fail the state’s reading assessment three times will likely have an impact. This will be a heavy lift since the most recent numbers showed one in five students aren’t reading proficiently.

The Times of Northwest Indiana recently reported that Holcomb almost certainly won’t achieve his goal of reducing Indiana’s infant mortality rate to the lowest in the Midwest. Indiana has lagged most states in the region for at least a decade, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.

A recent report from the Indiana Department of Health found that infant mortality in the Hoosier State rose to 7.2 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2022, up from 6.7 in 2021 and 6.6 in 2020. The state health agency said preliminary data suggests Indiana’s infant mortality rate is due to fall to 6.5 deaths per 1,000 live births for 2023. But that early result remains subject to revision and is unlikely to be official for months to come.

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Holcomb has a good shot at at another of his objectives: raising average Indiana teacher pay to $60,000. He even went ahead and called it a win in his 2024 State of the State Address.

“Thanks to the historic investments this body has made, average teacher pay across the state will reach our salary goal of $60,000 a year,” the governor said in January.

The average teacher salary in Indiana was $58,531 during the 2022-23 school year — up from about $57,000 the year prior —  according to the most recent state teacher compensation report by the Indiana Education Employment Relations Board (IEERB). Another report will come at the end of the year and include any new negotiated salary increases.

Holcomb’s last major goal focuses on college attainment and looks to be well out of reach. He hoped to have 60% of Hoosiers equipped with a quality degree or credential beyond high school by 2025.

A 2022 report found that Indiana’s college-going rate not only lags behind the nation but is also declining. Currently, the rate is just over 48%. But many Hoosiers are obtaining credentials so that’s a positive.

More than numbers

Holcomb is far more popular than he gets credit for, largely due to a few key decisions he made during the pandemic. And while he won’t reach all his goals, he also has other accomplishments to be proud of.

One is the ongoing economic development investment keeping Indiana in the running for a top spot to locate and grow jobs. Another is $1 billion funneled to regions around the state to improve quality of place.

Holcomb also gets credit for a much-needed infusion of cash into Indiana’s public health system. This one has the most chance of a long-term gain in reducing Hoosiers’ poor health rankings. And don’t forget lower individual income taxes, less state debt and the 70,000 households and businesses now connected to broadband.

Frankly, the next Indiana governor has big cowboy boots to fill.

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