Here's why Kari Lake's campaign says she can still win Arizona's Senate race

U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake’s campaign maintained in a memo on Tuesday that former President Donald Trump’s strong polling in Arizona suggests she will ultimately benefit from the Republican support as well.

The memo said Democrat Ruben Gallego has blanketed Arizona screens but not pulled away from Lake, who is the front-runner for the GOP Senate nomination. The memo comes as Lake consistently has trailed Gallego in publicly released polling and in campaign fundraising at least through March.

Lake has weathered criticism from conservatives after she urged the repeal of the 1864 near-total ban on abortion after the Arizona Supreme Court upheld that law in April.

Lake and Gallego are aiming for the seat held by U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz. In March, Sinema announced she would not seek a second term. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, a Republican, also is running in the GOP primary.

Since entering the race with months of anticipation and the endorsement of Trump, Lake has spent months lagging in the polls and decidedly trailing Gallego in money. She has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, but Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has remained cool to her candidacy, as he was in 2022 with Blake Masters, the GOP’s Senate nominee that year.

The Lake memo projected an air of confidence, citing Trump’s recent public polling and alluded to undisclosed internal polling for her campaign that suggests she will benefit from a good environment for Republicans.

“In spite of Radical Ruben’s millions and lies, he is hitting a ceiling of about 45% of the vote,” the memo said. “And his ads are not moving the needle in his favor, he is also very undefined to voters, which as our campaign starts our media buy, gives us an opportunity to define Ruben Gallego as the Far-Left candidate he truly is.”

The memo claims that Lake still has room to grow her political support, while Gallego will be dragged down by his consistent support for the legislative priorities of Democratic President Joe Biden.

“Bottom line: this race is a toss-up, statistical tie, with Donald Trump holding a commanding lead over Joe Biden,” the memo said. “The more voters hear about Ruben Gallego’s true progressive record, the more likely they will vote for Kari Lake.”

Hannah Goss, a spokeswoman for Gallego’s campaign, rejected the memo’s conclusion.

“Ruben Gallego has a proven record of bringing people together to solve Arizona’s most pressing issues, while Kari Lake is an untrustworthy conspiracy theorist who will do or say anything to get power — and that’s why Arizonans will her again in November.”

For the moment, nonpartisan political pundits have moved the race closer to Gallego than Lake.

The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race “lean Democratic.” Inside Elections rates it “tilt Democratic.”

A poll taken last week by CBS News and YouGov found Gallego leading Lake by 13 percentage points, well outside the poll’s 3.6 percentage point margin of error. A week earlier, the New York Times and Siena College showed Gallego leading Lake by 3 and 4 percentage points among likely and registered voters respectively.

Among the polls tracked by the politics website FiveThirtyEight, Gallego has led in all eight taken since mid-March, shortly after Sinema said she would not seek a second term.

The campaign fundraising picture is similarly lopsided.

Getting assistance: Ruben Gallego looks to past John McCain, Kyrsten Sinema campaign donors for money

Entering April, Gallego had $9.6 million in cash. At the same time, Lake had $2.5 million in cash and $451,000 in debt. Lamb had $254,000 in cash and $117,000 in debts.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Kari Lake campaign maintains Arizona's Senate race is within reach