Haley primary protest vote over Trump hints at 2nd District headwinds in Nebraska

Former President Donald Trump, the presumed 2024 Republican nominee for president, said in a video on Monday, April 8, 2024, that abortion law should be set by the states. Trump is shown speaking May 28, 2022, in Casper, Wyoming. (Chet Strange/Getty Images)

OMAHA — More than 1 in 5 Republican presidential primary voters in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District cast a ballot this week for someone other than former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee.

That could spell trouble for Trump in flipping Nebraska Democrats’ “blue dot” to red this November, if Republicans don’t eliminate the dot altogether, political observers said.

Trump won the closed GOP primary in Nebraska handily, securing nearly 75% of the swing district’s GOP vote. But former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley drew nearly 23%, with the rest going to other candidates. 

Haley quit the presidential race in early March and has not campaigned since. However, she has continued to grab a sizable piece of the GOP primary electorate since stepping aside. 

National pundits describe her persistent support as a “protest vote” and say it’s evidence that a small but potentially significant number of Republicans don’t and might not support Trump.

The Trump campaign has pushed back on this assertion by saying that Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz maintained significant support in 2016 after the GOP presidential primary outcome was obvious.

Cruz, for example, remained in the race until just before the 2016 Nebraska primary. He received 16.5% of the 2nd District GOP primary vote in 2016. Trump got 62.5%.

Trump’s campaign had no immediate comment on the Nebraska results. The former president has pressed state lawmakers to change how Nebraska awards its five Electoral College votes.

The campaign wants a chance to push the race to a 269-269 tie, which would then decided by the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. Presidential polling has increasingly indicated that scenario is possible.

Biden courts Haley voters

President Joe Biden’s campaign spokesman, Ammar Moussa, said Trump alienated many Haley supporters and moderate GOP voters by telling them “he doesn’t need them,” and now they are returning the favor.

Biden received 93% of the 2nd District Democratic primary vote, with 7% going to Dean Phillips, who has also quit the race.

“Trump enters the general election as a weak candidate, unable to build the coalition needed to win 270 electoral votes,” Moussa said. “There is a place for Haley voters in our campaign.”

Nebraska awards two of its electoral votes to the statewide winner of the presidential popular vote, which was Trump in 2016 and 2020 and is expected to be Trump again in 2024. 

The state also awards a single electoral vote to the winner in each congressional district. That has only mattered in the 2nd District, where Trump won in 2016 and Biden won in 2020.

Gov. Jim Pillen said he would call a special session this summer to make Nebraska award all five electoral votes to the statewide winner if he can get enough votes — which he has not.

Legislative leaders in Maine, the only other state that splits its electoral votes, have pledged to shift that Democratic-leaning state to winner-take-all if Nebraska changes its system.

Haley’s 2nd District total rose Friday after Douglas County finished counting early voting ballots that were returned on Election Day. It opens those ballots after an election.

With those ballots included, Trump secured 73% of the GOP primary vote in Douglas County, down from 73.8% counted on Election Day. Haley secured 23.4% of the vote, up from 22.7% on Tuesday. 

In suburban Sarpy County’s slice of the 2nd District, Trump, at 79.68%, gained about half a percentage point, and Haley, at 19.18%, fell about the same amount from follow-up counting.

Saunders County finished all of its counting on Tuesday except for 22 provisional ballots, election officials said. Trump secured 81% of the vote in Saunders. Haley got 18%.

That mostly mirrored the statewide vote, where Trump was leading 80%-18%. One oddity: More than 9,000 more Republicans voted in both of Nebraska’s U.S. Senate races than in the presidential race. 

That kind of dropoff at the top of the ballot is rare, observers said, and could indicate voter fatigue with the race. Overall turnout was lower than expected, at 28%, down from Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen’s 35% prediction. 

Unusual division from Republicans

Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said the Haley protest vote is unusual for Republicans, who are typically more unified than Democrats in presidential races.

“It’s clearly the case that there is a faction within the Republican Party that is not happy with Trump,” she said. “The real question is what happens in November.”

Some Republicans might come home and vote for Trump. Others might vote for Biden, she said. Some might vote for a third-party candidate. And some might skip the race.

Theiss-Morse said it’s not clear how those voters will impact the 2024 race because Biden also has an enthusiasm gap with some Democratic voters.

One key question for the general election is whether the lack of enthusiasm for the two main candidates can be overridden by the “real hatred of the opposing party’s candidate,” she said.

“Will that hatred motivate them to the polls?” she asked.

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