Guilty verdict in Stormy Daniels case would rally swing states behind Trump, poll shows
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
Donald Trump will receive a boost of support in four key swing states if he is found guilty in the Stormy Daniels “hush money” trial, a new poll for The Telegraph has found.
Voters in several of the battleground areas for November’s presidential election said they would be more likely to vote for Mr Trump if he is found guilty of falsifying business records to conceal an alleged sexual encounter with Ms Daniels, an adult film star.
The former president has been in court this week to hear testimony from Ms Daniels, who gave evidence about the incident she claims happened in 2006.
Mr Trump is facing a sentence of 20 years in prison if he is found guilty of covering up “hush money” payments to Ms Daniels to prevent her revealing details about their alleged liaison in the run-up to his first presidential bid in 2016.
However, a poll for The Telegraph conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found that many voters would be more likely to vote for him if there is a guilty verdict.
Boost highest in 2020’s closest state
In Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, more voters said they would be more likely to vote for Mr Trump if he is found guilty than said they would be less likely.
In Georgia, the closest state in the 2020 presidential race, 35 per cent of voters said they would support Mr Trump more if he is convicted, versus 27 per cent who said they would support him less.
Thirty per cent of those polled in Georgia said their preferences would be unaffected
In Arizona, one of the closest states in the last election, voters were split evenly between being more likely or less likely to vote for Mr Trump in the event of a guilty verdict.
Voters surveyed in Pennsylvania were slightly less likely to support the former president if a jury finds against him.
If he is convicted, Mr Trump would be the first former president to be found guilty of a felony. In total, across four pending criminal cases, he faces 91 felony charges.
Despite the allegations of criminal activity, Mr Trump is leading Joe Biden in national polling.
The Telegraph’s poll puts him ahead in six of the key battlegrounds, with leads in several major policy areas including the economy and defence.
Excluding voters who said they were unsure, a majority of voters in the six states said they believed Mr Trump would receive a fair trial in the Stormy Daniels case, despite his repeated claims that the trial is “rigged” and “corrupt”.
The case is set to resume on Monday, when Mr Trump’s former associate Michael Cohen is scheduled to testify against him.
Philip van Scheltinga, the director of research at Redfield & Wilton Strategies, said: “Our polling makes it clear that American voters want an election that is decided by themselves, not by the courts.
Conviction ‘would raise the stakes’
“It is not that surprising that more voters say they’d be more likely to vote for Trump if he is convicted, given what has been happening over the last several years.
“For most Americans, this case is yet another instance of the many fraught battles between Trump and his opponents.
“A conviction wouldn’t change voters’ perceptions, but it would raise the stakes for this election to another level.”
Mr van Scheltinga added: “The investigations into Trump helped secure his nomination, by sucking the air out of other campaigns, and making it difficult to criticise him when he was being seen as being attacked. Now, they might just propel him into the White House.”
