Forecast for Kari Lake turns chilly after Arizona's abortion disaster

Already we’re seeing fallout from the Arizona Republican Party’s disastrous embrace of that 1864 law that criminalizes abortion.

On Wednesday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball pronounced Democrat Ruben Gallego as the narrow favorite to win Arizona’s open Senate seat.

The race previously had been designated a “toss-up” by Sabato, who directs the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and is considered one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters of federal races.

It’s bad news for Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani as well. Sabato moved his rematch against Democrat Kirsten Engel from “leans Republican” to toss-up.

Sabato predicts hard times for Kari Lake

“As the narrowly Republican-held legislature ponders what to do about abortion, there is also a looming statewide ballot issue that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, as other statewide electorates have done in states like Michigan and Ohio in the aftermath of the Dobbs decision,” the nonpartisan election-forecasting newsletter reported.

“While voters can and often do split their tickets on such ballot measures, we can’t imagine a major ballot fight over abortion rights would hurt Democratic turnout efforts in the state, and it very well could help.”

Sabato also pointed to first-quarter fundraising results, noting that Kari Lake’s $3.6 million haul was “decent” until viewed next to Gallego’s $7.5 million.

Sabato’s report cited Lake’s election denialism and her earlier support for that 1864 abortion ban and noted she has “a hard-right reputation that she is going to need to tone down” if she wants to win.

Somehow, I’m guessing urging her supporters this week in ruby red Mohave County to “strap on a Glock” for the coming campaign isn’t likely to help her on her Kari Lake rehabilitation tour.

GOP's leaked abortion strategy: Is an insult to voters

“The Republicans’ 2022 Senate slate was defined by weak candidacies in several races; on balance, the GOP field seems better this time, although Lake is more in the mold of some of the candidates who had trouble in 2022,” the Sabato report says.

“It’s also unclear how much Republican outside groups will prioritize Arizona (they didn’t in 2022 because of a lack of confidence in the GOP’s nominee, Blake Masters).”

Why other Arizona races moved to toss-ups

Gallego, meanwhile, is left of center, but a 4-to-1 cash advantage gives him the resources to change his image.

“With a big head start on money, Gallego might be able to define himself positively early on for voters — something Sinema seemed successful in doing when she made the jump from the House to the Senate in 2018,” he wrote.

As for southern Arizona’s swing congressional district, Sabato says it’s now a toss-up.

“The same factors that apply to Lake also apply to Ciscomani — the increasing interest in abortion rights probably does not help him as a Republican (although he has not supported the draconian territorial law in the past),” the report said, “and his leading rival, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D), is catching up to him in fundraising.”

Engel raised $1.19 million in the first quarter to Ciscomani’s $635,000. Ciscomani sill has more cash on hand — $2.5 million to Engel’s $1.9 million.

Sabato rates both the presidential race in Arizona and Congressional District 1 (Rep. David Schweikert’s seat) as toss-ups but notes “we could see Gallego doing a little better than Biden, just like now-Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) did in 2020.”

Speaking of strapping things on, it’s clear that Republicans will have to strap on a repeal if they want to have any hope of maintaining control of the Legislature.

It may even be too late, given their ham-handed handling of the issue this week.

You don't have to have a crystal ball to figure that one out.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) at @LaurieRoberts.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Kari Lake could lose the Senate over Arizona's abortion disaster