Fong leads CD-20 special election to replace Kevin McCarthy, but did Boudreaux have a chance?

BAKERSFIELD, Calif, (KGET) — A day after the CD-20 special election to complete the rest of Kevin McCarthy’s term, Republican Vince Fong is projected to be the winner.

His opponent Republican Mike Boudreaux conceded the race to Fong on Tuesday.

“I don’t know that moving forward would be really responsible to those who would be spending money on me, and so we’re gonna have to evaluate and see what that looks like,” Boudreaux told 17 News.

Fong was on an entirely different path, stating his work in Congress has already begun.

“My guess is that after the Memorial Day work period, we’ll be in Washington D.C.,” Fong said in a Zoom interview with 17 News Wednesday morning.

“The moment we get sworn in, there will be votes, we’ll be introducing legislation,” Fong added. “I’m already talking to members of Congress about the priorities of the Central Valley trying to deal with water challenges and water infrastructure, trying to get more energy production, certainly talking about the border and trying to get our budget in check.”

Boudreaux is considering a campaign suspension ahead of the November election for the full two-year term in Congress, in which he’d also face Fong.

“Then again, do we really want two Republicans going head-to-head wasting people’s money?” Boudreaux said.

How is Fong in such a comfortable lead?

First, Fong – who is endorsed by his predecessor Kevin McCarthy as well as former President Donald Trump – raised nearly four times as much as Boudreaux has in campaign funds.

Central Valley political strategist and Vince Fong supporter Tal Eslick noted it’s the money and frequent advertising that makes a strong campaign.

“Sheriff Boudreaux has spent a lot of time on what I would describe as the retail politics. So that’s going out, going to events, going to local clubs taking selfies …” Eslick said, adding that unless a voter was present at those events, they would not know Boudreaux the candidate.

Eslick added, “Assemblyman Fong’s campaign had the resources to talk to voters, and as far as I can tell, Sheriff Boudreaux’s campaign just didn’t have the resources.”

Also, Kern makes up more than half the district and knows Vince Fong very well, way back from when he worked for former congressmen Bill Thomas and Kevin McCarthy.

Name ID means votes.

“He’s a local boy, West High, he knows the district … I trust him with all our problems,” said Roy Sekine, who says he’s known Fong since he worked as a district director for McCarthy.

“Vince worked for Kevin, and he was his mentor, and he learned everything,” Sekine said. “He knows all the ropes. He knows how to fight for Kern County.”

“Everybody knows Vince.”

That’s the key. In this large county, Fong has significant name ID.

“Vince has always been there for me,” said Gary Zuber, another longtime supporter and friend of Fong.

That includes the support of local leaders too, like Bakersfield Ward 3 City Councilman Ken Weir.

“He has years of experience, and I’m positive that he’s not gonna waste that time,” Weir said.

Boudreaux said he campaigned heavily in Kern County, even attempting to win over Kern Democrats, but couldn’t overcome the local Kern GOP “machine” both Kevin McCarthy and his protégé Vince Fong are part of.

Where the trouble came was Kern County where we’re not as well known

“You guys have in Kern County a very — I call it the machine,” Boudreaux said. “But quite frankly McCarthy and his fundraising all across America is strong.”

Remember, not only did McCarthy himself – and likely secure the Trump endorsement – but he also poured hundreds of thousands into a pro-Fong PAC.

“I really wasn’t targeting the McCarthy loyalists or Fong loyalists, I was targeting those who had had enough of what they are used to,” Boudreaux said.

“This all went down very quickly,” the candidate said with a positive outlook. “If I had a year to visit and spend time and make relationships in Kern, I think we’d have a different story here.”

If Assemblyman Fong becomes Congressman Fong, his 32nd Assembly District seat will be vacant until his term ends in December.

According to California election law, because this vacancy is during the last year of the incumbent’s term, no special election is required.

Reassuring his constituents, Fong said, “There’ll be staff that’ll be working in the Assembly. They will be monitoring and helping constituents, and certainly I will be engaged as well.”

As for Boudreaux, he likely will announce his future plans in the coming days or weeks.

“Candidate Sheriff Boudreaux has shown himself to be very hardworking and diligent,” Eslick pointed out, saying Boudreaux may have a solid future in other offices, perhaps state office.

For instance, Boudreaux does have close ties with state Senator Shannon Grove, who will be termed out in 2026. Grove also endorsed Boudreaux for his congressional run, so close eyes are on what political future Boudreaux may pursue.

It’s worth noting whether it be Boudreaux or Fong, someone from the Central Valley could’ve helped the congressional majority back in March.

On March 19, we had the primary special election with nine candidates, but because no candidates got a majority of the votes, we proceeded to the May 21 runoff, further delaying the assistance to a House Republican majority.

As Councilmember Weir put it with a chuckle, “We need to get [Fong] over the line and get this silly thing under us so we can move on from here.”

As for what Fong can do for Kern, “sky’s the limit,” Weir said.

“Speaker Johnson has indicated his support for Assemblyman Fong, if Assemblyman Fong is successful, I’d expect he’d be sworn in the coming days, maybe week, and he’d become in all likelihood an ally of Speaker Johnson, Eslick said.

The political strategist also stated if Boudreaux were to stay in the race for the November general election, he would be at a further disadvantage.

At that point, Fong could likely have the incumbent advantage, which Eslick said includes earned media, fundraising from and in Washington D.C., as well as the help of a full congressional staff.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to KGET 17.