As Florida Democrats profess optimism, polling shows voters favor Donald Trump and Rick Scott

Democratic Party leaders have been flooding the zone with optimistic outlooks, insisting they have a chance to produce some November surprises in Florida and arguing there’s no reason for their party to give up on the state.

On Thursday, the White House announced that President Joe Biden would travel soon to Tampa for what the Tampa Bay Times reported would be a campaign stop.

And former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate said in a video news conference there is a potential for her party to do well because in her view the state is neither Republican red nor Democratic blue.

“Florida is a purple state,” Mucarsel-Powell said.

The latest polling from Florida Atlantic University shows the state’s voters aren’t convinced. For now, at least, they’re with the Republicans.

A poll is a snapshot, and Election Day is more than six months away.

But the survey, released Thursday, “confirms our understanding that Florida is a heavy lift for the Democrats, and absent a particularly strong Democratic turnout, it’s going to be a challenge to win statewide,” Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist, said in an interview.

Former President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and congressional Republicans are all ahead.

Democrats acknowledged one of their challenges this week: not having a candidate to run in every election. On Wednesday, the state Democratic Party announced a “candidate recruitment campaign,” including billboards and digital advertising in an attempt to recruit candidates in four Florida counties.

Republicans face a similar challenge. They don’t run candidates for every available office, especially in Democratic strongholds such as Broward County.

Trump

Trump leads President Joe Biden 51%-43% among likely voters.

Just 2% are undecided in a contest between the two well-known candidates, and another 4% said they’d pick another candidate.

Among women, Trump and Biden are tied at 48%.

Among men, Trump leads 55% to 37%.

Voters overwhelmingly support their party’s candidate, with 84% of Democrats supporting Biden and 89% of Republicans supporting Trump.

The former president leads the current president among independents, 50%-36%.

Both candidates are weakest among voters aged 18-34, with 16% saying they’d vote for another candidate, and 7% undecided — percentages that are significantly higher than among all other age groups.

Duckhong Kim, another FAU political scientist, said in a statement that “it seems that Florida is going to be a safe state for Trump in this election cycle.”

RFK Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the anti-vaccine activist and son of the assassinated U.S. senator, had the support of 6% of likely Florida voters in a separate question giving the option to choose him or Biden or Trump.

The overall results — Florida in the Republican column — didn’t change.

When voters had the option of three candidates, Trump had 49%, Biden 40%, Kennedy 6%, another (unnamed) candidate 2% and undecided 3%.

Kennedy’s strength was among voters aged 18-34.

He had 18% in the youngest group of voters, 9% among those 35-49; 4% among those 50-64, and 3% among those 65 and older.

Political prognosticators have been divided over which candidate will be damaged more by having Kennedy in the race. Some Democrats fear he’ll hurt Biden because of his famous Democratic roots. Some Republicans think he’ll hurt Trump with voters who embrace conspiracy theories. (PolitiFact said its 2023 “lie of the year ” went to Kennedy’s “campaign of conspiracy theories,” mostly related to medical theories.)

Wagner said it doesn’t seem to be substantially hurting one candidate more than the other.

And with or without the presence of Kennedy, Trump is ahead of Biden in Florida. The difference between Biden and Trump is 8 percentage points when it’s just the two of them, and 9 percentage points when Kennedy is added to the mix.

Scott

The poll found Scott is in a good position to win a second term in the Senate.

He has the support of 53% of surveyed voters.

Mucarsel-Powell, the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination for Senate, has 36%. The rest are undecided or said they’d vote for another candidate.

Scott, who is a former Florida governor, has a commanding lead among men, 62% to 33%. It’s closer among women, 44% to 39%.

Overwhelming majorities of Democrats said they’d vote for Mucarsel-Powell. Republicans favored Scott.

Wagner said the Scott/Mucarsel-Powell results are consistent with the way Florida voters are choosing between Democrats and Republicans.

Scott has an advantage but it’s too early to “put this race to bed,” Wagner said.

“Rick Scott has the strength of the Republican brand in a state that’s trending Republican, running against somebody that many people are not familiar with,” he said. “It’s certainly possible for this to tighten, but it’s not a good starting point for Mucarsel-Powell.”

Mucarsel-Powell has been attempting to mobilize support among people who favor abortion rights. She’s highlighting Scott’s opposition to abortion and touting her support including her backing of the proposed referendum that would enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution.

On Tuesday, the campaign arm for U.S. Senate Democrats and the Florida Democratic Party highlighted planned advertising in the Scott/Mucarsel-Powell race worth seven figures. The Florida effort is just a fraction of the $79 million, nine-state plan announced that day.

Scott, who is one of the wealthiest senators and has spent his own money heavily in previous campaigns, has already announced a seven-figure ad buy — aimed just at the state’s Hispanic voters.

It unveiled the third spot, “Socialismo,” on Thursday, asserting that Democrats are pushing the country toward socialism.

In her news conference on Thursday, Mucarsel-Powell continued to stress her support for abortion rights and Scott’s opposition.

“Floridians are not going to forget that he wants to take away all of our freedoms. He can’t lie away his radical record. Floridians are ready to finally hold him accountable, and I’m going to be standing right beside them every step of the way,” she said.

Mucarsel-Powell declined to comment about the poll’s findings, which she said she hadn’t seen in detail. “But polls go up and down. We’re seven months (until) the election,” she said. By November, she added, “most of the state will know who I am, will know that they have a choice, and I know I’m going to win.”

Congress

Another indication of the state’s continued Republican tilt is the so-called congressional ballot test. The poll asked voters if the election for Congress were held today, which party they’d choose, a question that doesn’t include names of candidates.

Among Florida likely voters, 47% they’d vote Republican for Congress and 39% said Democratic.

Fine print

The poll of 865 Florida voters was conducted April 15 through April 17 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The survey used text messages to reach registered voters who responded to a link to complete the survey online and used automated phone calls to reach other voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents. The margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, is higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

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