Will Florida break more heat records in 2024? AccuWeather releases its summer forecast

Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
·5 min read

There's good news and some bad news for Florida when it comes to the 2024 summer forecast.

AccuWeather meteorologists released their U.S. 2024 Summer Forecast Wednesday, May 1, predicting millions of Americans across the U.S. will experience above-historical average temperatures this summer.

While temperatures will be high in Florida, as of now, the record-breaking heat seen in 2023 may not occur this year, said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster.

It all depends on the tropics.

Here's what AccuWeather is predicting for summer 2024.

Temperatures expected to be higher than historical average across US

Key takeaways from AccuWeather's summer forecast:

  • Temperatures will soar 2 to 4 degrees above the historical average across much of the United States this summer.

  • More 90-degree days are expected in New York City, Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Chicago this summer compared to 2023, driving up energy demands.

  • Drought conditions are forecast to expand in the Northern Rockies, interior Northeast, and Interior Southwest.

  • Forecast for “explosive” hurricane season could lead to increased flooding threats along the Gulf Coast.

  • California is expected to remain free of widespread drought this summer.

What is the summer 2024 forecast for Florida?

Florida's Panhandle and some areas in extreme North Florida could see temperatures 1 to 2 degrees higher than average. For the rest of Florida, temperatures currently forecast to be average this summer, unlike most of the rest of the country.

Florida's summer forecast is changing. Pastelok said. When AccuWeather first starting developing its summer outlook, "it looked to be we would see the typical average summer in Florida, with a wet season the end of May and start of June.

"Temperatures were expected to be high in the late spring, then come closer to average."

That's now changed.

"It looks as if we'll be going into the summer season on the dry side," Pastelok said.

Even if Florida doesn't break any heat records this summer, it will still be hot, especially when you add in the heat index.

"High water temperatures will influence air temperatures," Pastolek said. "With a high-pressure system in place, with the sun beating down, it won't take much to get into the 90s."

"High humidity levels will lead to very warm nights across much of the Gulf Coast region," AccuWeather said.

That prediction could change again if a tropical system develops in late May, which — at this time — is not likely.

"It all depends a lot on tropics. The wetter it gets, the harder it is to reach those higher temperatures. It will drive up humidity, but that's high anyway," Pastolek said.

2024 could see a hotter start in Florida, reversing 2023

"Florida may not see record heat like last year, but if we have a pretty dry late spring, early summer, chances are high we're going to have hot weather to start off the summer season," Pastolek said.

"Waters are warm around the (Florida) peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea so we're going to see precipitation, but first it's going to be a very dry, hot start to the season before we mold into average temperatures."

So June temperatures could be hotter than average before settling into average temperatures in July and August, the opposite of what happened in 2023.

When it comes to drought, there may be some abnormally dry areas in the state as we move into summer, but conditions could improve quickly in June. Very low dewpoints in the Southeast are contributing to dryness.

"People like it because it's pleasant and comfortable, but if you're burning, you have got to be careful.

"I don't anticipate an active wildfire season (in Florida) but this dryness scares me," Pastolek said.

2023 was second warmest on record for Florida

It was hot in Florida in 2023.

Pastelok, said, "2023 ranked 128th out of 129 years for heat."

"There were periods of dry and periods of wet, and when it got wet, it got really wet."

Tropics influence Florida weather

Flooding could be a problem from the Florida coast to the Texas coast this summer.

“There is an increased flood threat for the Gulf Coast states as a busy tropical season is anticipated with one or two threats in the summer season,” said Pastelok.

In March, AccuWeather issued its prediction for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting an "explosive" hurricane season that has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in a season.

Here's the AccuWeather forecast for the upcoming season:

  • 20-25 named storms

  • 8-12 hurricanes

  • 4-7 major hurricanes

  • 4-6 direct U.S. impacts

  • Texas, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas face heightened risk.

  • Potential to break all-time record of 30 named storms in one season.

"Waters are very warm for this time of year, one to one and a half months ahead of pace," Pastolek said.

While Central America and Texas could see potential for early tropical activity, "later in the summer, all bets are off. Things will pick up quick in August," Pastolek said.

What can you do to be ready for Florida heat?

  • Make sure your air conditioner is ready to go.

  • Have a plan for the tropical season; don't wait until August.

  • Schedule outdoor activities for May and June and enjoy the temperatures while you can.

  • Be prepared at all times, both for tropical activity and heat.

  • If you're sensitive to heat, stay inside between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m.

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: How hot will it get in Florida this summer? AccuWeather forecast