5 things to watch in today’s Pennsylvania primary

PHILADELPHIA — Pennsylvania might be the most important state for both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in November. But with both of them having locked up their parties’ nominations already, the most interesting primaries in the Keystone State on Tuesday will be down the ballot.

In Pittsburgh, Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) is the first member of the progressive ‘Squad’ to face a primary challenge this year, although a victory for her seems more than likely at this point. And in a scattering of other districts, Democrats and Republicans will pick their nominees for potentially competitive general elections.

One congressional race is already set: the state’s already-expensive Senate race between Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat, and GOP businessperson Dave McCormick, who are both unopposed in their respective primaries.

There are also competitive primaries for state offices, and even the dormant presidential race might reveal some things about the key Pennsylvania suburbs. Here are five things we're watching tonight:

The ‘Squad’ faces its first test

Lee is the first member of the progressive ‘Squad’ to face a primary challenge this cycle, and one of the first major down-ballot tests of the impact of the Israel-Hamas war. But it may not be as formidable of a challenge for Lee as it once might have seemed.

Lee was first elected last cycle after winning a bitterly contested Democratic primary, where pro-Israel groups spent millions opposing her. But the same groups have stayed out of her matchup with Edgewood Borough Councilmember Bhavini Patel this year, even as Israel’s invasion of Gaza has loomed over Democratic politics and Lee was among the first members of Congress to call for a ceasefire.

There was still some outside spending. Moderate PAC, which had the support of GOP megadonor Jeff Yass, has spent around $570,000 to oppose Lee, with some of the ads accusing her of insufficiently supporting Biden. But most of that spending was earlier this spring — the group has dropped just $6,000 over the past two weeks, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, perhaps a sign that the race is not as competitive as the group once thought it was.

Lee was accompanied by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) as she campaigned in Pittsburgh this past weekend. A victory would be a win for congressional progressives. But other members of the ‘Squad,’ such as Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), still face tougher tests down the line.

Republicans pick their candidates for key congressional races

Republicans will pick their nominee to face Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) in the competitive 7th Congressional District, which includes Allentown and the Lehigh Valley. Wild won by two points in 2022, a good year for Pennsylvania Democrats.

She faces three potential challengers: state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, National Guard veteran Kevin Dellicker, and Maria Montero, who worked in the administration of former GOP Gov. Tom Corbett. Dellicker has had a slight financial lead in the race, but whoever wins the primary will have a lot of catching up to do money-wise, as Wild reported $2.6 million cash on hand earlier this month.

As Republicans look to hold onto the House, they are also keeping a close eye on Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, where Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) faces a challenge from anti-abortion activist Mark Houck.

The 1st Congressional District includes all of swingy Bucks County and a slice of neighboring Montgomery County. But the incumbent’s brand is strong in the Biden-won district: Fitzpatrick — a moderate who was preceded by his brother Mike in the seat — won by nearly 10 points two years ago. If Houck were to defeat him, however, it would open the door for Democrats to flip the district. Democrat Ashley Ehasz, who Fitzpatrick defeated in 2022, is running again this year.

Fitzpatrick has easily defeated primary challengers from the right several times now, and it’s not clear that Houck has a better path to an upset, even after Democrats tried to meddle in the primary. But Republicans will be breathing a bit easier once Fitzpatrick locks up the nomination.

Democrats will also pick their nominee against GOP Rep. Scott Perry, who won reelection by 8 points in 2022. Perry, who has close ties to Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, represents a central Pennsylvania district the then-president carried narrowly that year.

There are six Democrats on the ballot, but the top contenders appear to be former local TV news anchor Janelle Stelson, Marine Corps veteran Mike O’Brien and Harrisburg city Councilor Shamaine Daniels, who lost to Perry two years ago.

Presidential protest votes?

Pennsylvania is the largest and most consequential presidential swing state — so even though Biden and Trump have amassed well more than the numbers of delegates needed to secure their respective nominations, the state’s presidential primaries bear watching.

Both parties have zombie candidates — those who have suspended their campaigns but had already secured ballot access in future states — on the ballot.

On the Republican side, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is the only alternative to Trump. As in other post-Super Tuesday states voting after she ended her campaign, a strong showing from Haley in places like the Philadelphia suburbs could be warning signs about Trump’s ability to win back voters he lost in his 2020 defeat.

The Democratic race won’t be quite as interesting. Unlike some other states, Pennsylvania does not have the “uncommitted” ballot line — which has become a popular protest vote for those who disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. And the only other candidate on the ballot, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), largely shares Biden’s policies and voted for aid to Israel last week when it came before the House.

Attorney General matchups

Perhaps the most competitive race in Pennsylvania on Tuesday is the Democratic contest for state attorney general. The position is the only statewide office without an incumbent this year. And it’s notable as past Pennsylvania attorneys general have a pattern of becoming governor — just see current Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, or Corbett, a Republican.

Five Democrats are vying for the party’s nomination. State Rep. Jared Solomon of Philadelphia and Delaware County District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer are the two who have raised enough money to run TV ads. Both have touted their support for abortion rights. Also in the race are former state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, former Bucks County Solicitor Joe Khan and Keir Bradford-Grey, the former chief public defender in Philadelphia.

The Republican contest is a battle between state Rep. Craig Williams of Delaware County and York County District Attorney Dave Sunday. Both have taken a tough-on-crime approach, with Williams leading a legislative Republican effort to impeach Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner that passed the state House but was rejected by the Senate. Sunday, who is endorsed by the state Republican Party, has touted a drop in gun violence in York County during his tenure.

The Northeast Philly primary and Democrats’ dilemma

State Rep. Kevin Boyle, a Democrat from Northeast Philadelphia, is facing a primary challenge on Tuesday. His whereabouts have also been publicly unknown since last week, after police issued a warrant for his arrest, accusing him of violating a protection from abuse order. That warrant was withdrawn Monday.

Boyle — who has spoken openly about his mental health challenges in the past and whose family has expressed concern about his well-being — may lose his primary. Democrats recruited a challenger, Sean Dougherty, earlier this year after an incident where Boyle was caught on video yelling at restaurant staff. Dougherty is a former assistant public defender who, like Boyle, is from a well-known Pennsylvania political family.

But there is a lingering problem for Democrats even if Boyle loses the primary. The party currently holds a two-seat majority in the lower chamber. That is likely to narrow to a one-seat lead after a special election also being held Tuesday in the Republican-leaning 139th House District.

Democrats have already used proxy voting to cast ballots on Boyle’s behalf using a standing designation from him, even as his whereabouts are unclear. (The math gets complicated because another Republican member is currently on leave from the chamber while deployed overseas.)

But that process, criticized by Republicans, is going to get less tenable as time goes on. Democrats have suggested setting up an inquiry into Boyle’s capacity to serve that could lead to his ultimate expulsion. But regardless, it makes for a difficult situation in the narrowly divided chamber — and focuses even more attention on Tuesday’s contest.

A version of this story first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score newsletter. Sign up for POLITICO Pro.