‘Extraordinary’ hurricane season — 17 to 25 named storms — could be coming to East Coast, NOAA warns

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is warning that this year could be “extraordinary” for hurricane conditions.

NOAA is predicting 17-25 named storms, which have winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those named storms, 8 to 13 will become hurricanes with at least 74 mph winds, and of those, 4 to 7 could become “major hurricanes.” Specifically, there is an 85% chance of above-normal season, 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance for below-normal season. This is the largest number of storms and highest ranges predicted by NOAA.

“It’s important to point out that past is, of course, not necessarily prologue when it comes to the hurricanes of the future,” said Rick Spinrad, administrator for NOAA. “This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways, based on our data and models with the El Nino-La Nina playing out a significant role. The key this year — as in any year — is to get prepared and stay prepared.”

Last year, NOAA’s May prediction said 2023 would likely be within a range of 12 to 17 named storms. Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes, or storms with winds of 74 mph or higher, including one to four “major” hurricanes. NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook called for 14-21 named storms, of which six to 11 could become hurricanes. Of those, between two and five could become “major” hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater. By the end of the year, forecasters considered the season busy, but Hampton Roads largely avoided serious impacts from storms.

Spinrad said models indicate a 77% chance of La Nina forming during the August October timeframe. Higher water temperatures, which are fuel to hurricanes, will play a significant part this season, as well. Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said sea surface temperatures in the main development region for hurricanes are 2-3.5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. He said they are equivalent to what is normally seen during August. That, coupled with the African rain monsoon and lack of wind shear, is going to have a major affect on the season.

The administration is also rolling out new tools to help cover hurricane season and the severe weather that comes with it. One update is a new graphic to better communicate where impacts from a storm may be. Traditionally, meteorologists have had trouble telling audiences that impacts may be seen outside of the track of the storm, or “cone.” Now, NOAA has produced a visual that includes those outlying impacts for those not in the direct path. These impacts include storm surge or rip currents, which historically have contributed to a large number of fatalities related to storms.

“The graphic is so powerful because it means more than me saying, ‘Hey, there’s impacts outside the cone,'” said Ken Graham director of the National Weather Service. “Now, you can see it. This is experimental, (and) we’re going to try it this year. I’m super excited about it … The other part of it as a Spanish language translation using artificial intelligence. For decades, we have people in Puerto Rico, San Juan translating our tropical products into Spanish. Now we’re partnered with a company called Lilt, and we’re actually we have to be able to translate that as we go.”

The season does not technically start until June 1, but administrators say it is never too early to prepare. Graham said following updates can save lives, especially during storms facing rapid intensification.

“The dangers aren’t over when the storm passes, and a lot of those fatalities are just during cleanup,” Graham said. “Please listen to those local officials. They know what they’re talking about. Listen to those local officials. When you look at Hurricane Laura, you think about the category that we had there, we had an 18-foot storm surge in Louisiana, but we lost more than from improper use of generators.”

FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik Hooks said it only takes one storm to affect livelihood, and it does not necessarily have to be a major storm.

“We’re getting down to the wire when it comes to ensuring communities more prepared for whatever lies ahead,” Hooks said. “So before hurricane season officially begins, my message to the American people is this: Take time to make sure that you have a clear understanding of your unique risk is. Do you have medication that requires refrigeration? Do you have a medical device that requires electricity? Do you have the ability to make evacuations? Now’s the time to ask yourself these questions.”

Eliza Noe, eliza.noe@virginiamedia.com