Experts warn of a 'potentially explosive' hurricane season in the Atlantic

AccuWeather is doubling down on its early season prediction of a busy hurricane season, now saying signs point toward a "potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024."

With high water temperatures serving as fuel for tropical storms, forecasters are pointing to well-above-average sea temperatures in the Atlantic basin as the primary driver of a busy hurricane season that's likely to generate 20 to 25 storms.

"The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said. "All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024."

AccuWeather, a commercial forecasting service, released its forecast Wednesday morning, about a month after sounding the alarm and saying early indicators were pointing to a busy season. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through the end of November, but hurricanes can form before or after that time period.

'Serious and growing concerns': Meteorologists already expect a busy hurricane season

Hurricane season starts June 1 but storms could hit earlier

One factor in the Pacific Ocean that can play a big role in hurricane development has changed for the worse since AccuWeather rang the warning bell in February. Two opposing climate patterns called El Niño and La Niña are detectable in water temperature and trade winds in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, according to NOAA.

The current pattern is El Niño, but that's likely to shift to La Niña by the middle of the hurricane season, forecasters say. El Niño typically provides protection against hurricanes because it delivers disruptive winds high in the atmosphere, but that protective shield is likely to disappear with La Niña.

The likelihood of a shift to La Niña is greater than 80% "during the core of the hurricane season," according to Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. That's an increase from 55% in late February, when forecasters also cited it as likely contributing to a busy hurricane season.

Rosencrans added, "Atlantic sea surface temperatures are still well above normal, though there is some regression toward the long-term average over the whole basin."

As he did in February, Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, also agrees with AccuWeather "that a very active Atlantic hurricane season is likely in store for 2024."

"As they noted, the tropical Atlantic remains record warm, while we are very likely to transition from El Niño to La Niña in the next few months," Klotzbach said. "La Niña generates more hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions, while the extremely warm Atlantic provides more fuel for hurricanes."

How many hurricanes does AccuWeather forecast?

AccuWeather says its meteorologists are forecasting 20 to 25 named storms across the Atlantic basin in 2024, including 8 to 12 hurricanes, four to seven major hurricanes and four to six direct U.S. impacts.

The 30-year annual historical average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes and four direct U.S. impacts, AccuWeather says.

Last hurricane season featured 19 named storms, but there were only four direct U.S. impacts.

Colorado State University plans to release its hurricane forecast on April 4. NOAA plans to release its forecast May 23.

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Forecasters warn of 'explosive' hurricane season, up to 25 named storms