Even Democrats don’t get what Biden’s Israel weapons policy is

The White House insists it’s been clear about its policy toward Israel: It will still sell weapons to the ally despite pausing one bomb shipment. Top Democrats don’t think it's so straightforward.

Last week’s halt on 3,500 bombs that were to be sent to Israel ahead of an invasion of Rafah was a singular decision, not reflective of some larger strategic shift toward the Middle Eastern ally, administration officials said. But the quiet congressional notification Tuesday night of a potential $1 billion arms sale to Israel that’s years from delivery confused lawmakers, including Democrats, who say the administration has a significant messaging problem.

At the same time, while the White House says the bomb pause is a specific move for a narrow purpose, the Biden administration’s increasing criticism of Israel could create the impression that more arms restrictions are yet to come.

Senate Foreign Relations Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said President Joe Biden communicated the facts of the pause and its rationale poorly. That left an opening for House Republicans to introduce a bill forcing the sale of the bombs, a measure the White House said it would veto.

The administration’s actions were not well understood “certainly not by Israel, certainly not by the public and certainly not here,” Cardin told reporters. “It was not clear what their motive was.”

“If the purpose was to put a hold on the heavy bombs that should not be used in Gaza, that’s one thing, but that’s not how it was explained,” Cardin continued. “The administration has to clarify this, but my understanding is they were only concerned about this one particular weapon.”

Even White House officials privately acknowledge there have been gaps in communication. “There was a little bit of confusion last week about what exactly was paused,” said one of them, who like two others was granted anonymity to detail sensitive internal dynamics.

The weeklong scramble underscores the challenge Biden faces when explaining the Israel policy tightrope he walks. He aims to both support Israel’s retaliation against Hamas for the Oct. 7 attack while convincing the ally it doesn’t need to flatten cities to defeat the militant group.

The bomb pause, the officials say, was a signal to Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, that Biden didn’t want to see Israeli troops smash into Rafah.

But Biden has two problems on his hands: The Israeli government isn’t heeding his Rafah warnings and has already conducted limited operations there, while the nuance of his bomb-pause stance hasn't caught on in Washington.

Ivo Daalder, a foreign policy expert close to senior administration officials, said the White House has been unable to explain its approach in full, contributing to the confusion surrounding the arms shipments and inviting blowback from the right and left.

“They would be better off if the president gave a big speech,” said Daalder, the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. “They need to explain what their strategy is, and frankly, they haven’t.”

Instead of sending Biden to face the public, the White House put national security adviser Jake Sullivan in front of cameras Monday to outline the administration’s 10-point Israel-Hamas strategy. The decision to withhold the unguided bombs, he said, was rooted solely in concerns that Israel would use them in Rafah. He and others have since spent time calling individual lawmakers to further emphasize that the White House remains committed to defending Israel.

Some of those lawmakers aren’t impressed.

“The government over there is not exactly helping themselves, but part of this is the White House trying to flex its muscles, and in that balance, things get lost in translation,” said one Democratic lawmaker who’s spoken to the White House, adding that Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s assertion over the weekend that Israel should “get out of Gaza” only further confused matters. “If that was the cleanup, they suck.”

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a close ally of Biden’s, said it was understandable that the complexities of American arms transfers have sparked confusion, especially when deliveries can happen years after an official announcement.

“These are very long pipelines and very thick pipelines,” he said. “There are weapons systems in development in funding and deployment that were authorized years ago and were funded years ago.”

“I think that very complexity has made this difficult to communicate around,” he continued.

Biden administration officials insist it’s ridiculous when anyone accuses them of abandoning Israel.

Biden, a decadeslong backer of the country, set aside his simmering differences with Netanyahu to fly to Tel Aviv and wrap the wounded nation’s leader in a bear hug. The president then offered unrelenting support for Israel during its war even as civilian casualties began to rise.

But soon, progressives and then far more mainstream Democrats — including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — questioned how Netanyahu was conducting the conflict. Biden began to unleash his own criticism, first privately and then in public, declaring that Israel’s response was “over the top.” And Biden’s political team began to nervously watch the reaction in the U.S. just months before the president stands for reelection, according to advisers.

The war only seemed to exacerbate Biden’s struggles with young voters and voters of color, many of whom took to college campuses in recent weeks to protest. Campaign aides have seen the president’s poll numbers slip in Michigan — home to a large Arab-American population — and begun to think about stitching together a new coalition to capture the must-win battleground state.

And now Biden’s bombs pause has further complicated matters while seeming to satisfy no one — and, to some, worsened the confusion.

Two U.S. officials said the possible sale that emerged Tuesday featuring tank ammunition, tactical vehicles and mortar rounds has long been in the works. It was a coincidence that lawmakers were informed as House Republicans aimed to force the administration’s hand and Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) filed articles of impeachment this week over the bomb shipment halt.

“I’ve literally never heard those issues discussed in the policy context,” said one of the officials, noting it will take years for the new weapons to arrive in Israel. “This has been in train and not timed at all to anything on the Hill,” the other added.

Even so, there’s little question that the potential $1 billion sale could be a political boon at a tough time for Biden, as it could inoculate him from charges that he’s letting Israel fend for itself as a full-scale Rafah invasion looms.

Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East peace negotiator, agreed the timing was “politically convenient,” though he noted “you don’t fashion a billion in military assistance overnight. It took planning and has a multiyear runway going forward.”

Despite all the mixed messaging, Democrats mostly support the actions Biden has taken.

"The type of arms that will be shipped is consistent with the goal of a more targeted and precision-guided approach toward fighting this terrorist organization," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a member of the chamber’s Armed Services Committee.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), who sits on the subcommittee overseeing defense appropriations, added: “The weapons that are needed are on their way or already there.”