Escambia, Santa Rosa future at risk without better growth planning | Guestview

Paul Owens
·3 min read

Like much of Florida, Escambia and Santa Rosa counties are growing fast. Properly managed, growth promises rewards for the region and its residents. But it also presents risks − especially if not planned for thoughtfully. 

The populations of both counties are projected to expand by tens of thousands in the coming decades. How they absorb these additional residents will determine the health of their environments, their quality of life and ultimately the strength of their economies. The stakes could not be much higher.

With a generous grant from the Pensacola & Perdido Bays Estuary Program, 1000 Friends of Florida has analyzed growth trends in the two counties and their impact on land use and water quality in 2040. Our partners in this Escambia/Santa Rosa 2040 project were the University of Florida’s Center for Landscape Conservation Planning and Center for Coastal Solutions. Here’s what we found:

  • If Escambia and Santa Rosa keep following their current development patterns without protecting additional land, they will lose more than 20,000 acres to development by 2040. Stormwater runoff will increase by the equivalent of 15,000 Olympic swimming pools, dumping more than 100,000 additional pounds of nitrogen and nearly 20,000 more pounds of phosphorous − both fuel for algal blooms − into area waterways.

  • If the two counties develop at a modest 30 percent higher density and preserve land with high values for conservation, they will save more than 8,000 acres from development by 2040. Additional stormwater runoff will be reduced to less than 3,000 Olympic swimming pools, additional nitrogen to less than 23,000 pounds, and additional phosphorous to less than 4,000 pounds.

  • The 2040 differences in land use and water pollution between current and compact development patterns will compound in ensuing decades.

Sparing as much natural and agricultural land as reasonably possible from development is critical to protecting the region’s environment, beginning with its most valuable assets: Pensacola and Perdido bays. These two estuaries are not only the signature natural resources for Escambia and Santa Rosa counties; they are the foundation of their economies. A 2022 Florida State University study tallied a $22.6 billion economic impact from the bays, including 113,000 jobs.

But turning too much land into rooftops and pavement to accommodate additional residents in the two counties will increase runoff into area waterways, including the bays, and their risk of harmful algal blooms that kill fish, seagrass and other marine life. These devastating natural impacts also harm commercial and recreational activities that depend on healthy bays.

Natural and agricultural land provides other valuable environmental and economic benefits, including recharging the underground water supply, reducing flooding, preserving wildlife habitat, sustaining working farms, and expanding outdoor recreation.

Undeveloped land can be preserved in the two counties by encouraging urban infill and redevelopment through local planning and land development policies, and by discouraging low-density, car-dependent sprawling development far outside their urban cores. Urban development  also makes more efficient use of public services, keeping costs down for taxpayers.

To invite locally informed and inspired ideas for policies that would promote more sustainable, bay-friendly growth in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, 1000 Friends of Florida convened an advisory group of local leaders and planning professionals. We’ll discuss those ideas, along with the findings from this project, in a free public workshop at 5 p.m. April 23 at the downtown Pensacola library. At 6 p.m., Christian Wagley, the Alabama/Florida organizer for Healthy Gulf, will lead workshop attendees on a short walking tour highlighting examples of bay-friendly development.

We hope as many Escambia and Santa Rosa residents as possible will join us in this important discussion for the region’s future.

Paul Owens is the president of 1000 Friends of Florida, nonpartisan advocates of planning for sustainable communities. For more information about the upcoming event, visit 1000fof.org/county/escambia-santa-rosa/ 

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Escambia, Santa Rosa future at risk without better growth planning