ECLIPSE WEATHER: Abilene forecasts predict gloomy conditions ahead of solar eclipse

ABILENE, Texas (BCH Weather) – On the heels of Severe Weather Awareness Week 2024, we’re preparing to see a near-full solar eclipse throughout most of the Big Country!

Texas weather can be fairly unpredictable, but BCH meteorologists have been keeping a close eye on on different ensemble forecasts for the eclipse next Monday.

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Ensemble forecasts are, essentially, multiple predictions from a collection of numerical model runs that show slightly different outcomes based on current weather conditions.

The objective of these ensembles are to improve the accuracy of the forecast by averaging the different forecasts results, which eliminates non predictable components to determine the most likely outcome.

There are about five different ensemble forecasting models that go through that same process. We use these tools to measure the likelihood of a forecast locally.

So, what are the models showing at this time? To start things off, a pacific front is forecasted to sweep across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the front.

The setup this weekend is almost identical to the setup for severe storms of Monday, with the pacific front-dry line combination. Some of these storms could be on the strong side, but it is still too early to pin down any specifics.

For Monday, April 8, there is still much uncertainty regarding rainfall chances and cloud cover for eclipse time. A lot depends on the track of the front and the low-pressure center it is associated with.

Current runs of the GFS and ECMWF models show another upper-level low near Baja California on Monday, with ample amounts of pacific moisture streaming northeastward across northern Mexico and West Texas.

Weak disturbances embedded in the wind flow aloft may lead to scattered shower development during the day, as is noted in some of the ensemble runs. However, other models show weak shortwave ridging aloft holding through most of the day which would keep skies clear.

Also, there is a hint in some of the models – most notably the GFS, that southerly flow and low cloud development may hold off until later in the day on Monday and into the night.

According to the San Angelo NWS Office, the latest forecast for Abilene on Monday, April 8 calls for mostly sunny skies with a 30% chance of showers and highs near 80 degrees.

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For areas in the path of totality, like DFW, Waco, Kerrville, and Tyler, the latest forecast is calling for partly sunny skies with a 30% chance of showers, and highs also near 80 degrees.

Clearly, all models are not in agreement at this time. Over the next few days, as model confidence in the weather pattern increases, ensemble forecasts will become more accurate.

Hopefully, there will be some adjustments to the current forecasts for better conditions. BCH meteorologists will update you any new information regarding the eclipse event.

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