Early data shows Latino voter turnout in California’s primary election is ‘not keeping pace’

Latinos rank near the bottom when it came to voting, yet again, according to early returns of the 2024 primary Election Day.

In California, Latinos had the lowest number of ballots returned of all other large ethnic groups — white, Black and Asian — according to Political Data, Inc. As of Wednesday, only an estimated 11% of ballots sent to California Latinos had been returned. Black and Asian voters returned their ballots at a rate of 18%, while white voters led all groups at 25%.

“They’re just not keeping pace with the voting rate for other populations,” said Paul Mitchell, founder and vice president of PDI, a bipartisan voting data firm.

The low numbers are not surprising to Latino voting experts, who saw the lackluster turnout coming. And while it’s too early to predict the final turnout, some warn that the continued lack of engagement by Latino voters could lead to issues for both the Democratic and Republican parties, who are vying for the Latino vote in the upcoming presidential election.

Young people skip the vote

Nothing about the early data was unexpected to Mindy Romero, founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy. An expert in Latino voting trends, Romero urged patience until all the ballots are counted.

She said Latinos are not alone in the turnout problem. Primary elections routinely receive lower turnout compared to general elections and, with lower turnouts, disparities among ethnic groups tend to become bigger.

Across all registered California voters, only 20% of ballots had been returned thus far, according to the PDI tracker, as of Wednesday.

“Unfortunately, the story is not going to change,” Romero said. “Turnout will be low across the board and even lower for Latinos.”

If anything, Romero said, the final numbers will look worse. The PDI tracker only accounts for registered voters. For Latinos, that’s about 6.2 million.

But, this year, there are more than 8 million Latinos in the state who were eligible to cast a ballot, according to California voter file data.

Part of the Latino turnout problem comes from the lack of a youth vote, said Mitchell.

People older than 65 and those between the ages of 18 and 34 represent nearly the same amount of registered voters in California. But in terms of voting numbers, Mitchell said, seniors outperformed younger voters by more than five times as of Wednesday night.

This is particularly important with Latinos because the voting population skews younger. There are roughly 7.8 million Latinos aged 30 and younger living in California, according to the latest census figures.

“It could be that we don’t have a Latino turnout problem,” Mitchell said. “We have a young person turnout problem.”

Campaigns not engaging Latinos

For Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant in California and expert on Latino voting trends, Tuesday was further evidence that Latinos are not being engaged correctly by both major political parties.

“They keep doubling down on the wrong and as long as they keep doing that, you’re gonna see low turnout, you’re gonna see low engagement, you’re gonna see a more of a rightward shift and more balancing out between the parties,” Madrid said.

He echoed Romero in saying that low turnout has been an issue for decades, with neither major political party figuring out a solution. The difference now, Madrid said, is Democrats are more reliant on securing Latino voters as their support for Republicans has slightly increased in recent elections.

In 2020, former President Donald Trump got the support of 38% of Latino voters to President Joe Biden’s 59%, according to the Pew Research Center.

“The Democrats really have to retool their entire approach to Latinos or they’re going to start losing elections,” Madrid said.

Though presidential elections tend to receive the major headlines and drive people to polls, voter turnout might be more important to local elections.

These lower scale races tend to be closer and more dependent on a small number of votes, Romero said. In Sacramento, the top two mayoral candidates Richard Pan and Steve Hansen are currently separated by four votes.

In theory, Romero said, local elections should receive higher turnout than statewide races. Though, she acknowledged that hardly ever happens.

“Local races often impact people’s daily lives more in a tangible way, a more noticeable way for voters,” Romero said.