Despite deputy leader saying 'terrorism is a thing of the past', small-scale attacks continue in Kenya

In September 2023, Kenya commemorated the 10th anniversary of a deadly assault by Somali-based Al-Shabaab on an upscale Nairobi shopping mall that left more than 60 people dead. Although the frequency of these threats in the capital has diminished since then, extremists continue to carry out attacks in the country’s northeastern and coastal regions. In April, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua told Kenyan expatriates that there had been no acts of terrorism in the country in one and a half years. However, reports from media and monitoring groups paint another picture.

While speaking to the Kenyan expatriate community in Kigali, Rwanda on April 6, 2024, Gachagwa said: “In a record of one and a half years, Kenya’s security has never been that good. Not a single act of terrorism has been committed in Kenya.”

His words were quoted by a Kenyan digital news site in a post on the X platform.

The same post included a video of Gachagua delivering this part of his speech where he claims intelligence gathering and a “proactive approach” had effectively eliminated a range of security issues in Kenya. The Kenyan news site accurately reported his sentiments.

Gachagua gave a generally upbeat assessment of the country as a safe and secure destination, where terrorism, bank robberies, carjackings and muggings “are a thing of the past”.

But his tenure so far, and that of President William Ruto, has not been without challenges.

After the pair took office in September 2022 following a nail-biting election, they were confronted with months of violent protests led by the opposition (archived here).

A year later the leaders were marking the anniversary of the mall massacre, one of Kenya’s darkest moments in recent memory – a stark reminder of the threats just across the border (archived here).

Past atrocities

Al-Shabaab, a militant group based in neighbouring Somalia, has been Kenya’s scourge in the last decade.

Notable atrocities include the 2013 attack on the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi, which left 67 people dead; the 2015 attack on Garissa University College, where 148 students were killed (archived here); and the 2019 attack on the DusitD2 hotel complex in Nairobi, resulting in 21 fatalities.

In 1998, more than 200 people were killed when Al-Qaeda bombed the US embassy in Nairobi (archived here).

However, the threat from militants remains.

Several small-scale attacks

The counties of Kenya bordering Somalia, namely Lamu, Mandera, and Wajir, have been experiencing an increase in coordinated Al-Shabaab attacks targeting civilians and security personnel (archived here).

According to a recent report by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), March 2024 saw a significant rise in Al-Shabaab-linked attacks in Lamu, with the number tripling compared to the prior month (archived here).

Similarly, there was a doubling of events in Mandera during the same period.

Kenya’s internal security minister Kithure Kindiki personally addressed the issue of these militant attacks in Lamu, saying an incident on June 18, 2023, was perpetrated by Al-Shabaab (archived here).

ACLED told AFP Fact Check that Gachagua's claim was false.

“In the past 18 months, the country has experienced occasional attacks connected to the Al-Shabaab militia group,” ACLED said.

The United States has designated Al-Shabaab as a terrorist organisation.

According to ACLED's report, not a single month has gone by since January 2023 without an Al-Shabaab attack on Kenyan soil.

In March this year, local media said two police reservists were killed in Lamu by suspected Al-Shabaab jihadists (archived here).

A report released by the Institute of Security Studies (ISS) in July 2023 highlighted the increasing threat of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Kenya. According to the report, Al-Shabaab has been using IEDs because they are portable and easy to assemble.

Between June 13-25, 2023, the ISS said, 20 Kenyan military officers and civilians were killed in Lamu and Mandera counties (archived here).

May 17, 2024 Updated to include US designation of Al-Shabaab as a terrorist organisation