Data: Middle-to-high-income residents relocating to Clark County from Portland
PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — Southwest Washington saw a population “boom” in 2022 as a wave of Portlanders moved to Clark County, data collected by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis shows.
In 2019, less than 8,000 residents moved from Portland’s Tri-county area to Clark County. In 2022, that number spiked to nearly 14,000, a new report by Oregon state economist Josh Lehner titled: “Moving Across the River” states.
“The data shows that Southwest Washington has boomed both as a share of the Portland region, and the State of Washington,” Lehner stated in the report. “Given it is literally in a different state, Southwest Washington should not really impact a lot of what our office does. However, given its importance to the Portland region, and the fact there are a lot of residents working in Oregon and paying income taxes, these trends and impacts are very much worth paying attention to.”
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According to the data, most of the people moving to Clark County from Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington Counties between 2021 and 2022, were medium to high-income households earning between $50,000 and $150,000 per year.
“The chart below shows the household income of those moving within the Portland metro, but from the Oregon side to the Washington side,” Lehner said. “What the data show is that the increases are in most income tiers, but primarily driven by those in the upper-middle income brackets of $100,000 to $200,000, and not just among the very-high-income bracket.”
While taxes or public policies are rarely the only reasons for businesses and households to move, they “clearly” have an effect on our lives and our behaviors, Lehner said. One of the primary tax advantages to living in Southwest Washington instead of the tri-county area, he added, is “tax avoidance.”
“The border tax effect still exists and is very real,” Lehner said. “Keep in mind that the biggest part of the tax advantage of living in Southwest Washington is tax avoidance, if not outright tax evasion based on the unique location. Earning and realizing income while living and working in Washington minimizes income taxes while shopping in Oregon minimizes sales taxes.”
The 2022 population change greatly outweighed the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimates for Clark County, which now represents 21% of the Portland metro population, Lehner said. According to U.S. Census Bureau Data, Clark County’s growth is expected to maintain its level of growth, while Oregon’s declining population is expected to level out.
“Bottom Line: We don’t fully know the reasons why people move,” Lehner said. “We know humans are complicated, and one definition of economics is constrained optimization, or trying to do the best possible given all of the various variables impacting us. But economists tend to be believers in watching what people do more than listening to what they say.”
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