COVID daily case rates have dropped this spring, but how reliable is the data?
Fewer people are testing positive for COVID-19. But many may not report the results of home tests, while others don't bother to test for it at all.
Kern County’s average 14-day daily case rate for vaccinated individuals dropped below 2 in early March and below 5 for unvaccinated individuals.
By mid-April, the average for vaccinated individuals had dropped below one, and the unvaccinated were not far behind.
The data may look encouraging, said Paul Rzucidlo, lead epidemiologist for the Kern County Department of Public Health. But he knows it's not going to capture the full picture.
"Home tests don't necessarily get reported to us," he said.
And some people don't go to the doctor at all unless they're experiencing severe symptoms.
There's typically a bump in cases in the summer, and a bigger bump in the winter, Rzucidlo said. And he expects that to be repeated again this year.
But the relative severity of the peaks in cases has been declining.
"We are seeing a change," he said. "It peaked in January of this year, and in February it started the downturn in cases."
According to county statistics regarding the respiratory illness, those who were vaccinated against it generally fared better than those who were not.
The county department has documented 326,183 cases of COVID since the virus arrived in Kern in 2020. Of those cases, 2,676 patients died.
Of those who tested positive, more than 55% were in the 18-49 age range, 18% were 17 or younger, 16% were 50-64, and more than 9% were 65 or older. In 640 cases, the age group is unknown.
The higher infection rate among younger people, Rzucidlo said, is likely due to them being active in social, school and work settings.
The death demographics, however, were the reverse.
Only four patients died in the 17 and younger range, and 364 in the 18-49 range.
In a mirror of national statistics, older Kern County residents bore the brunt of the fatalities, with 678 listed in the 50-64 range, and 1,608 deaths among those 65 and older.
Underlying medical conditions, including high blood pressure, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, obesity, and being a current of former smoker, played a huge part, according to local statistics.
"Only 50 did not have an underlying condition," Rzucidlo said.
The data teaches us something else about guarding against the virus, he said.
"The vaccine is still the most safe and effective way to avoid severe illness and death."
