China's 19th Communist Party Congress is about to start - is Xi Jinping trying to tighten his grip?

President Xi Jinping could be about to lay the foundations for an extended rule of China beyond the ten-year presidential limit - AFP
President Xi Jinping could be about to lay the foundations for an extended rule of China beyond the ten-year presidential limit - AFP

China’s Communist rulers will hold their twice-a-decade Party Congress next week – a high-powered political gathering which determines who will rule 1.3 billion Chinese.

The event is likely to see president Xi Jinping, the country’s strongest leader for a generation, further cement his power as he enters his second five-year term.

But some observers believe he could go even further, and lay the foundations for an extended rule of China beyond the ten-year presidential limit.

What is the Party Congress?

Just 13 delegates – including a young Mao Tse-tung - attended the Communist Party of China's first congress in Shanghai in 1921.

With only a few dozen activists spread out across the vast country at that time, it would take twenty-eight years before Mao’s Communists seized power in a bloody civil war.

The 19th Party Congress will see 2,287 delegates converge on Beijing for the most important event in the calendar of a political organisation which now has 89 million members.

The delegates will select officials on the party's elite 205-member Central Committee, who will in turn appoint the 25-member politburo before a new Politburo Standing Committee is unveiled.

The Standing Committee – which currently numbers seven members – is the apex of political power in Chinese politics.

President Xi and Li Keqiang, the Chinese prime minister, are current members and are expected to stay on after the congress.

Lower level government posts and top positions in state-run companies will also be filled during the summit.

Despite the event being portrayed as an exercise in Chinese democracy in state media, most of the decisions on appointments are made months in advance though heated political jockeying and horse-trading.

More than 600 young pioneers participate in a military parades to welcome the upcoming 19th National Congress - Credit: VCG
More than 600 young pioneers participate in a military parades to welcome the upcoming 19th National Congress Credit: VCG

What do we need to watch out for?

On the opening day of the congress Mr Xi will make a speech where he will chart some of the achievements of the last five years and outline policies during the next term.

His words will provide a rare and valuable insight into where China’s priorities lie in the coming years.

Observers will also be closely watching appointments made on the Politburo Standing Committee.

Five of its seven members - all except Mr Xi and Mr Li - are expected to step down after reaching the unwritten "mandatory" retirement age of 68.

But Mr Xi will try to "bend the rule" to keep close ally Wang Qishan in office, Steven Tsang, professor of Chinese studies at the University of Nottingham, previously told The Telegraph.

Experts will also be monitoring whether Mr Xi unveils a potential successor within the top tier of political leadership.

Mr Xi was unveiled as a future leader under Hu Jintao at the 17th Party Congress in 2007.

However, few potential candidates have emerged in China as power has become increasingly centralised on Mr Xi since he became leader of the Communist Party five years ago.

Wang Qishan - Credit: AFP
Wang Qishan Credit: AFP

What does this mean for Xi Jinping?

Wang Qishan’s position at the end of the congress is being seen as a key signal in understanding how long Mr Xi intends to govern China.

By keeping his trusted lieutenant in place, this might indicate that he would seek a third term beyond the 20th Party Congress in 2022, when he would be expected to step down.

While China’s constitution says that presidents can only serve two terms, some believe Mr Xi could continue as General Secretary of the Communist Party and chief of China’s military, leaving a ceremonial president in place.

Presidents Li Xiannian (1983 to 1988) and Yang Shangkun (1988 to 1993) were largely symbolic figures before Jiang Zemin assumed power.

A picture shows Chinese President Xi Jinping's portrait during an exhibition displaying China's achievements for the past five years in Beijing - Credit: Reuters
A picture shows Chinese President Xi Jinping's portrait during an exhibition displaying China's achievements for the past five years in Beijing Credit: Reuters

There are many who argue that Mr Xi has no intention to rule for longer than a decade, but recent trends in China suggest otherwise.

Some say a growing cult of personality is developing around Mr Xi, with excessive media reports focusing on the president’s activities.

A survey of officials, academics and ordinary Chinese carried in the People’s Daily newspaper also suggested that China favours a strong leader.

Mr Xi was announced “core” leader of China last October, which puts him on the same political level as Mao and Deng Xiaoping.

At the 19th Party Congress, some say he is likely to have his thoughts – or ideology – enshrined in the constitution, another sign of growing influence.

Officials who are loyal to him are also likely to find themselves promoted to top positions.

This picture taken on October 10, 2017 shows a party flag of the Chinese Communist Party displayed at an exhibition showcasing China's progress in the past five years at the Beijing Exhibition Center. - Credit: AFP
This picture taken on October 10, 2017 shows a party flag of the Chinese Communist Party displayed at an exhibition showcasing China's progress in the past five years at the Beijing Exhibition Center. Credit: AFP

So what would this mean for China and for the world?

Some say that if Mr Xi surrounds himself with hardline loyalists, and if no obvious successor emerges in the medium to long term, then he will become stronger, as there will be no obvious replacement.

Others, however, suggest this might cause increased in-fighting in the Communist Party, and even outright revolt against a man who appears immovable.

But a major reshuffle in the top positions is likely to see a continuation of policies which have been the cornerstone of Mr Xi’s first term: a focus on economic and political stability at home and a positioning of Beijing at the centre of its idea of a globalist world abroad.

A man rides a sharing bicycle past a promotion billboard for China's 19th Party Congress in Beijing - Credit: AFP
A man rides a sharing bicycle past a promotion billboard for China's 19th Party Congress in Beijing Credit: AFP

And how will the Congress affect ordinary Chinese?

Thousands of red propaganda banners “warmly welcoming” the Party Congress have been hung outside shopping centres and schools, and even nightclubs and bars across Beijing.

The Chinese capital has also been given an environmental facelift, with trees being cut and flower beds erected at traffic junctions, with plants spelling out political slogans.

Security has also been ramped up, not only in Beijing but around the country.

Train passengers heading to Beijing from Shanghai railway stations have been told to arrive at the station earlier for extended security checks.

Security drills have been carried out at transport hubs and a football match in Beijing was cancelled ahead of the summit.

While the increase in security might be a headache for many, residents in Beijing will be thankful for the blue skies that usually appear during important government events.

A man in central China works on a 3D street painting of the emblem of Chinese Communist Party to celebrate the upcoming party congress  - Credit: AFP
A man in central China works on a 3D street painting of the emblem of Chinese Communist Party to celebrate the upcoming party congress Credit: AFP

Factories would have been instructed to close to help ensure Beijing’s usual smoggy weather does not spoil the political show.

And for rural Chinese who live thousands of miles away from the capital, authorities are ensuring they can keep up with the latest announcements from the congress through loudspeakers that are being erected in villages.

Loudspeakers were common in China during the 1960s and 70s, local media said, a period of intense propaganda during the Cultural Revolution.

“They were sacred and authoritative,” a 68-year-old rural villager nostalgically told Xinhua news agency in a report which bemoaned how modern technology had left villages “full of noise from the internet that left some beneficial policies misunderstood”.