The Biden administration doesn’t think Israel can fully win in Gaza

A top U.S. official’s recent statement that Israel is unlikely to achieve “total victory” in Gaza wasn’t a mistake or off-the-cuff remark — it’s how the Biden administration now assesses the situation on the ground.

Four U.S. officials agreed Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell’s comment at a conference on Monday was a direct articulation of a stance administration officials have danced around for months. Every time a senior aide to President Joe Biden talked about how Israeli weapons can’t destroy Hamas’ ideology or described the need for a “day after” plan, they were obliquely making the point that Israel’s goal of an “absolute victory” is out of reach, the officials said.

“I wouldn’t have put it so indelicately [as Campbell] but, yes, that’s how we see it,” said one of the officials, like others granted anonymity to confirm a sensitive internal assessment.

Two of the officials were quick to point out that Israel has achieved stunning tactical military victories, including killing thousands of Hamas fighters and destroying parts of the militants’ tunnel network — even if it has come at immense cost to the Palestinians of Gaza. A military victory over Hamas, one that keeps the group from launching another Oct. 7-style attack, remains achievable, the officials said.

But the problem is Israel has yet to produce any governance plan for the territory following that military defeat, or stop Hamas fighters from returning to once-cleared cities.

“You can degrade, you can disrupt, but the underlying things that enable them to form and develop and grow remains: The architecture and the support from outside groups remains,” another U.S. official said. “That’s how it works — that’s why we’re still in Iraq and Syria.”

Israel’s current operations in Gaza “breathe life” into the movement, the official continued.

The United States still wants to help Israel defend itself and degrade Hamas as much as possible. But the Biden administration is now in the awkward position of supporting Israel in a war it cannot fully win with methods the U.S. has warned against. After months of advising Israel not to fall into the same trap the U.S. walked into in places like Iraq, the administration is nonetheless helping the ally stroll down what may end up being the same trail.

Campbell’s comments came just one day after his boss, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, told multiple news shows that Israel’s military tactics could fuel an insurgency and that Israel should “get out of Gaza.”

Asked about both Blinken and Campbell’s remarks on Tuesday, State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said “while of course military pressure is necessary, it is not the only thing to fully defeat Hamas.”

“If Israel’s efforts are not accompanied by a political plan for the future of Gaza, for the future of the Palestinian people, the terrorists will keep coming back and Israel will continue to remain under threat, and we will continue to find ourselves in this continued cycle of violence.”

Lara Seligman and Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.