Bernie Sanders is on the brink after Tuesday’s setback. The road ahead isn’t any easier.
Bernie Sanders is losing decisively in key states, in danger of falling irreversibly behind in the delegate race, and even facing new calls to wind down his candidacy to avoid inflicting lasting damage on the Democratic Party.
And the presidential primary isn’t about to get any easier for him.
A string of defeats Tuesday, including in the crucial battleground state of Michigan, has put Sanders’ 2020 campaign in its most precarious position yet, pushing a candidate who recently looked like a front-runner dangerously close to the edge of viability.
Despite making concerted efforts in the days leading up to the Michigan and Missouri primaries, Sanders lost decisively in each state, while suffering an even more lopsided defeat in Mississippi on a night where his stark deficits with African-American and older voters once again hindered his campaign.
“I’m sure his advisers are telling him if he loses the three M’s [Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi] his candidacy is not necessarily over, but it’s certainly in intensive care,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri, who has endorsed Biden.
Biden also won the Idaho primary, while Sanders took the North Dakota caucuses. The Washington primary had not been called as of Wednesday morning.
As election results were rolling in Tuesday night, some prominent Democrats signaled they were moving on to the general election against President Donald Trump. Officials with two major Democratic groups, Priorities USA and American Bridge, said they were ready to support Biden as the party’s nominee. And influential South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, a Biden supporter, said on NPR that it’s time to “shut this primary down” and cancel future debates.
The sudden and overwhelming shift in support toward Biden shows no signs of abating anytime soon, either.
The next six primaries, which offer even more delegates than the six contests Tuesday, will be held in states carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016. And polling indicates Sanders’ hill looks steeper than ever before. He has just one week to make up double-digit deficits as polls show him down as much as 36 points in Florida, 32 points in Illinois and 28 points in Arizona.
The next states on the calendar that Sanders won in 2016 won’t vote until April.
Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Biden endorser, said early vote totals in his state show the leading age group in every congressional district is age 65 and older, an ominous sign for Sanders, who is far more reliant on younger voters.
A closed primary also places Sanders at a disadvantage. Only 40,000 have re-registered as Democrats since the beginning of the year, with many younger voters clinging to their independent status.
Younger voters may still turn out, but “if they do it will be late — but probably not enough,” said Gallego who expects a Biden victory in Arizona on March 17.
In Ohio, another state voting March 17, the climb might even be tougher for Sanders. Trump’s 8-point victory in 2016 was seen to have washed away its battleground status, which Democrats believe can now be revived by Biden.
“People are very very in tune with what we need to win and the kind of candidate we need to win and I think that tips the balance toward Joe Biden,” said Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, who endorsed Biden. “It’ll start to become mathematically impossible to catch the vice president. [Sanders’] got to start to decide, does he want to keep gobbling up delegates to take to the convention or shut this thing down?”
Sanders advisers have already begun pointing to Sunday’s debate — the first one-on-one of the primary season — as pivotal for the Vermont senator to demonstrate he has a stronger hold on the issues animating the party than Biden.
“Vice President Biden’s not going to be able to say, ‘I only have 45 seconds and my time is up,’ because he can’t wish away that time fast enough,” said Larry Cohen, a longtime informal adviser to Sanders who chairs Our Revolution, a group supporting the senator.
But even a sterling debate performance might not be enough to catch Biden, who extended his delegate lead to over 100 on Tuesday night. All told, 47 percent of all the pledged delegates at stake have now been allocated in the Democratic primary.
Sanders on Tuesday was once again undercut by a lack of support in the African-American community, the same problem that plagued him during his 2016 race and in previous 2020 contests. In Mississippi, for example, preliminary exit polls showed Biden winning an astounding 86 percent of the black vote.
Sanders’ campaign had tried a renewed push to reach out to black voters after Super Tuesday, running an ad that featured former President Barack Obama praising the Vermont senator.
But Democratic strategists say it’s clear by now that Biden’s longtime connection to the community is impossible for Sanders to overcome.
“If they had to decide between two people they don’t like very much, it’d be one thing,” said Helena Poleo, a Miami-based Democratic strategist who until recently worked for Mike Bloomberg’s presidential campaign. “But the fact is they’re so connected to Biden, it’s like, why even bother with this other guy?”
Of all the outcomes Tuesday, the Michigan defeat was the hardest for the Sanders campaign to swallow, particularly since it severely undercut the case that the senator would be the strongest general election nominee.
The Sanders campaign ran the campaign it wanted there, driving a largely economic message on trade and its impact on manufacturing losses that was tailored to the state’s concerns. They drew thousands at rallies, nailed down the endorsement of civil rights legend Jesse Jackson, designed an event catered to black voters in Flint and added a timely coronavirus briefing in Detroit that neatly aligned with their candidate’s priority of universal health care.
It still didn’t matter.
“There’s still a path forward and I think what we’ve learned in this primary is the narrative feels like it’s permanent until it changes on a day’s notice,” said Bill Neidhardt, a Sanders aide a few hours before polls closed in Michigan where he was stationed. “Elizabeth Warren was inevitable, Joe Biden was inevitable and now he’s inevitable again according to the spin. I try not to buy into that just because it changes so quickly.”
In a speech from Philadelphia, Biden extended an olive branch to Sanders, who did not address supporters Tuesday night.
“I want to thank Bernie Sanders and his supporters for their tireless passion,” Biden said. “We share a common goal and together we’ll defeat Donald Trump.”
This story was updated Wednesday morning with new election results.
The Kansas City Star’s Bryan Lowry and McClatchyDC’s Adam Wollner contributed.
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