Baltimore’s 2024 primary saw winners and losers on and off the ballot

Every Election Day has its share of winners and losers, but there were more than just candidates who emerged on the top of the heap (or bottom of the pile) by the time the dust settled on the 2024 primary in Baltimore.

From the politicos and wealthy financiers who wagered their clout (and cash) on candidates to the references to furry woodland creatures that somehow made their way into our election lexicon, few emerged untouched — or unscathed — this cycle.

Below are some of the winners and losers of Baltimore’s 2024 primary.

Winner: the will of the voters

In a city like Baltimore, where the mayoral race often attracts many hopefuls, contests often produce a leader by a jarringly narrow margin. That was the case in 2020, when Brandon Scott emerged victorious over Sheila Dixon and the rest of a crowded Democratic primary field with just 29.6% of the vote.

The 2024 mayoral race stood out for its relative lack of contenders. Throughout the race, polls showed Scott and Dixon well ahead of the few prospective candidates who also entered. Businessman Bob Wallace, who wrangled 20% of the vote as an independent in 2020, commanded just 3% as a Democrat this cycle. And former prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah polled at just 10% before backing out of the Democratic race in early May.

The result was a decisive victory and a firm mandate for Scott, the likes of which the city hasn’t seen since Democrat Stephanie Rawlings-Blake won in 2011. As of Friday, with ballot counting complete, Scott had almost 53% of the vote to Dixon’s 39%.

Winner: challengers

Running against an entrenched incumbent with the power of the pulpit is never an easy task, and many formidable candidates in Baltimore’s past have gone down trying. (Think back to Democrat Clarence “Du” Burns in 1991.) But the 2024 cycle saw some challengers’ campaigns resonate with voters in a big way, particularly when it came to Baltimore City Council races.

Democratic Councilman Zeke Cohen scored the most decisive victory for challengers, handily ousting one-term Council President Nick Mosby and beating back the politically like-minded Shannon Sneed in their primary. As of Friday, Cohen, who has represented the city’s first district since 2016, had 51% of the vote. Mosby, battered by his testimony during his ex-wife’s criminal trial, trailed both Cohen and Sneed with just 23%.

While he has not yet formally declared victory, labor leader Jermaine Jones, was the apparent primary winner over two-term Democratic Councilman Robert Stokes, scoring another point for challengers. As of Friday, Jones was up by 369 votes on Stokes, his largest lead to date with ballot counting now complete. Jones said he would wait until results are certified Tuesday to make a statement.

Most surprising in this category was Zac Blanchard, the vice president for the Midtown Community Benefits District, whose stunning ouster of Democratic Councilman Eric Costello became official Thursday with Costello’s concession. After days of Costello holding a thin margin in the primary, Blanchard took the lead Tuesday by just 28 votes. On Friday, he expanded that margin to 48.

Loser: public safety “partnership”

It’s not customary for Baltimore’s top prosecutor to endorse in political contests, but it’s also not unheard of. State’s attorneys are, after all, elected officials themselves.

And so few were surprised when Democratic State’s Attorney Ivan Bates endorsed Dixon. The former mayor campaigned eagerly for him just two years earlier.

What did stand out was the intensity of Bates’ involvement with the campaign. In April, Bates went public with what he said was a growing rift between him and Scott over their approach to the crime fight. Days later, he officially endorsed Dixon, reiterating his need for a “partner” in City Hall. Days after that, a television commercial began airing with Dixon and Bates side-by-side. The name of the ad? “Partner.”

Baltimore Sheriff Sam Cogen, also a Democrat, endorsed Dixon after Bates and echoed the sentiment that he needed a “partner” in City Hall.

The endorsement was a gamble for Bates, who won the prosecutor post in 2022 and has maintained high popularity. Elected on a staggered term from the mayor, Bates risked having to work with Scott if the mayor prevailed. By primary night, it became clear that scenario was exactly what Bates faced.

How will the tangling between the two men play out for the next four years? As they say in the courtroom, the jury is still out.

Loser: the political comeback

Dixon, making her third effort to reclaim the mayoralty she gave up in 2010 amid corruption charges, campaigned with not just the backing of public safety officials, but also well-financed political powerbrokers.

David Smith and John Luetkemeyer wagered with their cold hard cash on the race. The pair were the financial drivers behind a PAC supporting Dixon that aired thousands of dollars worth of negative TV ads suggesting the incumbent Scott was a “nice guy, bad mayor.”

According to the PAC’s most recent filing with the Maryland State Board of Elections, Luetkemeyer, the head of Continental Realty Corp., was the PAC’s top donor, giving $350,000. Smith, chairman of Sinclair Broadcast Group and the co-owner of The Baltimore Sun, gave $250,000 to the effort. Other members of the Smith and Luetkemeyer families gave thousands more to the PAC and directly to Dixon’s campaign.

Dixon also found late support from fellow mayoral candidate Vignarajah, who dropped out of the race the day before early voting started. The former prosecutor urged his supporters to get behind Dixon, although he had previously called her “corrupt.”

The alliances proved to be for naught.

“We overcame the odds, including a Trump-loving Republican super PAC that spent hundreds of thousands of dollars,” Scott said of the PAC during his primary night victory speech.

Loser: the Mosby dynasty

In 2022, there were two Mosbys occupying top Baltimore political offices. By December, there will be none.

Nick Mosby’s loss in the council president primary, coupled with his ex-wife Marilyn Mosby’s defeat in the 2022 Democratic primary for state’s attorney mark the end of an era for the former political power couple. Further humbling was the way it went down: Both came in third in their reelection bids.

Marilyn Mosby has since been convicted of perjury and mortgage fraud. She was sentenced Thursday to a year of home detention.

The council president has thus far handled his loss at the polls with grace. He publicly congratulated Cohen on his win and said he looked forward to working with him as he transitions into the council president role.

Winner: bike lanes

Is there a more divisive topic in Baltimore politics? There was nothing on the primary ballot about bike lanes this cycle, but the Democratic race for City Council’s District 3 in Northeast Baltimore nonetheless turned into a referendum on the issue.

Margo Bruner-Settles, a challenger taking on councilman and well-known bicycle evangelist Ryan Dorsey, made a splash when her campaign parked a truck along a Harford Road bike lane. The truck featured her name and a promise: “no new bike lanes.” A video clip of the truck was widely shared on X.

The morning after the election, with a commanding 64% lead in hand, Dorsey tweeted his reply at 6:08 a.m. “Looks like bike lanes are back on the menu boys,” his meme read.

Loser: reliable incumbency

District 11’s Councilman Costello entered the 2024 election cycle at the height of his power. Appointed in 2014 to replace outgoing Democratic Councilman William H. Cole IV, Costello rose to head the council’s Ways and Means Committee and, for the last four years, chaired the city’s budget negotiation process.

He also proved to be a prolific fundraiser. He had $509,000 ready and waiting in his election fund in January as primary season got underway.

This cycle, however, some District 11 voters apparently soured on the councilman. On Thursday, Costello conceded after challenger Blanchard grew his lead to 43 votes. More than 6,800 voters cast ballots in the race, which was divided in the end by 48 votes.

It’s unclear what led to the changing tide for Costello, but his unflinching support of Dixon may have played a role. Costello endorsed the former mayor early in the race, but she nonetheless performed poorly in his district. Costello also may have met his match in Blanchard. The publicly funded candidate used the $125,000 he received from the city to bombard District 11 voters with mailings, including one with Costello’s face on an oversized lottery ticket claiming “fat cat political donors won the lottery with Eric Costello.”

Even if Costello had prevailed, his days in a council power position were likely numbered. Committee chairs are appointees of the council president, and Cohen, the likely council president-elect, has not gotten along with Costello in the past.

Winner: bears

There weren’t many moments of levity during the 2024 mayoral race, but one came courtesy of Cogen. During an interview with The Baltimore Sun following his endorsement of Dixon, the city sheriff likened Scott to a bear. But not just any bear. He called him an “eating bear.”

Let’s roll the transcript: “If a bear is threatened by you, you play dead for that bear, right? Because it’s just a territorial thing. But there’s another bear that just comes to try to eat you. I sort of feel like I’m not getting anything from him (Scott) — he’s the eating bear,” Cogen said.

“So when the bear comes to eat you, you don’t play dead for that bear, you fight that bear,” Cogen added. “And that’s sort of like where I am right now.”

Scott made his own ursine comparison during a spending board meeting days later as his fellow board members teased him about his attire.

“They should leave the bear alone,” he said under his breath.

Roar.