How bad will hurricane season be in NJ and the Atlantic region? NOAA releases predictions
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its seasonal hurricane outlook for the Atlantic basin, predicting a potentially severe season due to warm waters and a weakening El Niño.
The agency forecasts between 17 to 25 named storms, with eight to 13 of those becoming hurricanes, and four to seven reaching major hurricane status with winds of at least 115 mph.
This year’s forecast marks the highest number of predicted hurricanes in NOAA’s annual May forecast. The shift from last season’s strong El Niño to weaker conditions has influenced this projection, as typical El Niño patterns—characterized by cooler Atlantic waters and hostile wind shear—are not expected to hinder tropical cyclone development in 2024.
National Weather Service Meteorologist Eric Hoeflich emphasized the significant potential for above-normal tropical activity, stating, "Our forecast has an 85% chance of above-normal tropical activity for the U.S. We can't go into specifics for New Jersey, but the Atlantic basin as a whole sees an 85% higher probability."
The Colorado State University outlook aligns with NOAA's predictions, estimating a 62% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline and a 66% chance in the Caribbean. The odds of a hurricane strike along all U.S. coastal states are about 10-20% higher than average, indicating the country could experience more impacts than in 2023.
NOAA's forecast does not specify which U.S. cities might be affected in 2024, but the overall heightened activity suggests increased risks across the Atlantic basin.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Hurricane season for the Atlantic region could be severe
