Bacon-Frei race is latest front in populist-traditionalist GOP fight

The 2024 primary in Nebraska could set the stage for how voters in the state's largest political party have changed. (Getty Images)

OMAHA — People who led a populist revolt against the old Nebraska Republican Party and those who rose to power with the party’s previous leaders will be watching primary results Tuesday for clues about how much the party’s electorate has changed.

Polling, pundits and conventional political indicators, including fundraising and advertising, point to a likely win in the 2nd District House race by U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb. He faces former tea party and now populist challenger Dan Frei.

But like former Democratic U.S. Rep. Brad Ashford, D-Neb., whom Kara Eastman upset in the 2018 Democratic primary, Bacon faces an opponent from his party’s energized base. And some question how many of Bacon’s supporters will be motivated to vote.

The 2nd District race has drawn the most attention from leaders in the new state GOP and populist partners in online activism, because they saw Frei nearly upset then-U.S. Rep. Lee Terry in 2014, and they see Bacon’s race as their best chance. 

The state central committee took the unusual step of endorsing no members of Nebraska’s all-GOP congressional delegation after none formally sought the committee’s endorsement. 

All five are favored to win re-election, and some Republicans the party ousted or ostracized want to see the party’s endorsed candidates lose and lose badly.

The state GOP endorsed Frei against Bacon, populist John Glen Weaver against U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts and populist John Walz against U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith. They did not endorse anyone in U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer’s race or U.S. Rep. Mike Flood’s. 

GOP fractured

Party Chairman Eric Underwood has argued that the party is better off making sure its candidates hew to the party platform and supporting them at the grassroots level.

“The GOP is fractured in Nebraska,” said Paul Landow, a retired political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. “There are a lot of issues they’re trying to iron out, and they’re doing it at the worst time possible, an election.”

Some numbers to watch, several told the Nebraska Examiner, are the early voting returns in Douglas, Sarpy and Saunders Counties, where most expect the better-financed Bacon campaign to hold an edge over a Frei group more suspicious of early voting.

As of late last week, Nebraskans had requested 161,000 early ballots by mail or in person, and 106,000 of them had been returned. Voters in another 11 Nebraska counties that vote exclusively by mail had received 50,000 ballots and had returned 16,000 of them. 

Another handful of counties have a handful of precincts that vote exclusively by mail. In a typical year, state election officials have said, about 90% of early ballots requested get returned. Ballots returned include in-person voting  at county election offices. 

Some political consultants say Frei could fare better if primary turnout is low. To counter that, the Bacon campaign has worked to bank early votes and overcome outside factors keeping people home, including the GOP presidential primary being essentially decided. 

Frei has based much of his 2024 campaign on appealing to the voters who demand more loyalty to former President Donald Trump. Trump has a complicated history with early voting, calling it cheating when other candidates are more successful at it.

Turnout predicted at 35%

Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen has predicted middle-high turnout of 35% for Nebraska’s 2024 presidential primary, in part because the state has the rare distinction of having both U.S. Senate races up for election in the same year.

Fischer is running for her third six-year term. She faces a last-minute GOP challenger in Arron Kowalski, a central Nebraska farmer and former House candidate who soundly lost 3rd District House bids in 2018 and 2020 against Smith.

Ricketts is running to finish the last two years of Ben Sasse’s Senate term. Gov. Jim Pillen appointed Ricketts in early 2023 after the University of Florida hired Sasse as president. Ricketts faces Weaver, of Omaha, and Mac Stevens of Bushnell.

Nebraska Democrats have choices in the federal primary in the 3rd District, where Daniel Ebers and David Else are running. 

Legislative primaries, which are officially nonpartisan, could also appeal to primary voters in both parties. 

The GOP fight has boosted Nebraska Democrats’ hopes for November in the 2nd District, the state’s most competitive. State Sen. Tony Vargas of Omaha awaits the winner of the GOP primary. He lost to Bacon by fewer than three percentage points in 2022.

Some Frei supporters said some Republicans are so frustrated with Bacon they might stay home this fall and let Vargas win. Some said they’d rather have “a Democrat than Bacon.” A few discussed write-in campaigns to siphon off votes.

Vargas awaits

Their most common gripes about Bacon concern his previous criticisms of Trump, whom Bacon has since endorsed. Bacon had said he preferred other Republican candidates for president this election cycle, including South Carolina U.S. Sen. Tim Scott.

Some argue it’s more about issues Trump has highlighted than Trump himself.

Landow, who has helped run statewide and local Democratic campaigns, agreed with other pundits who said Democrats would need only a few percentage points of Republican voters to stay home or switch sides to flip the seat into Vargas’ hands.

“I think the Democrats have a good shot,” he said.

Bacon has vacillated between looking ahead to the general election and reminding GOP primary voters about his conservative stances, including his support for a federal abortion ban and willingness to accept steps moving in that direction, including a 15-week ban.

He and his campaign have sounded confident in the weeks leading up to the primary, arguing that a district that is home to many fellow Air Force veterans and suburban conservatives appreciate his securing funds for Offutt Air Force Base and road improvements.

They pointed to a Roll Call article from May 8 that did not rank him among the top 10 incumbent House members at risk of losing. They also noted that neither Trump nor the House Freedom Caucus have endorsed Frei, and he sought the backing of both.

Focus on swing district’s voters

Bacon has argued that Frei’s attempt to run hard to the congressman’s right risks handing House control to Democrats because the politically mixed Omaha-area district won’t elect a candidate like Frei who has pledged to join the Freedom Caucus, a hard-right group.

Its members have argued that the House GOP should shut down the federal government, refuse to raise the debt ceiling and not compromise with Democrats. Some downplay the consequences of a shutdown or defaulting on U.S. debt.

Many Republicans blamed the Freedom Caucus for ousting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California, a close ally of Bacon’s, and trying to replace him with populist Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, whom Bacon opposed. The GOP eventually settled on Speaker Mike Johnson to replace McCarthy.

Frei and some of his populist supporters have argued that the status quo in Washington is not working. They say someone has to be willing to step in and stop the passage of continuing budget resolutions that add to the $34 trillion national debt.

Frei has said he would “never vote for a continuing resolution.” Bacon has argued that the GOP has to compromise to some extent because it controls only the House. Democrats control both the Senate and the White House through at least the end of the year.

Frei still talking deficit and debt

Much like in his 2014 race, Frei argues that two of the top issues facing Americans are the deficit and the debt. He has said Congress needs to get better at saying “no,” and he argues Bacon is part of the problem.

“You’ve got to stop the deficit spending,” Frei said. “He hasn’t.”

Frei has appeared multiple times on former Trump adviser Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. Bannon and former Trump economic adviser David Bossie helped state and local populist Republicans take over their party organizations, in part to help Trump.

Frei has criticized Bacon for being too willing to compromise and too willing to find common ground. He argues that most Republican primary voters would prefer a fighter, someone who stands for what is right regardless of its chances for passage.

He has been especially harsh on Bacon, who led the 55th Wing at Offutt and served during the Cold War, about pushing for military aid to Ukraine, which Congress passed. Bacon has said the aid is needed to help an ally and Europe fight back against Russia.

Bacon defends how he governs by pointing to ratings ranking him as effective in getting legislation included in larger legislative packages. He describes himself as a conservative who does what he can to represent a mixed district in a divided country.

“I am who I am,” Bacon said. “And I’m proud of what we’ve done.”

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