Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: Is spring getting wetter?
The weather has been very active lately. Constant rain and thunderstorms have been impacting Arkansas all Spring. This has been the case for the last three years. Is our Spring getting wetter? If it is, what is causing it?
The data from Little Rock shows March, April, and May are typically our rainiest months, and over the last few years, those months have been even wetter than normal! During the last 10 Springs, only two had below-average rainfall. 2018 and 2021 were just a few inches below the average of 15.49″.
If you average the rainfall over the last 10 springs you will get 18.75″. That’s more than a 3″ increase compared to the all-time average. It shows that Spring, at least since 2014, has gotten much wetter.
Looking further back at the data, this appears to be a recent trend. The 20 Springs prior had more below-average rainfall than above. 13 out of the 20 years were below normal, and many of those years received less than 10″ of rain for the entire Spring.
Since this trend is only 10 years, it can’t be blamed on anything climate-related. If it’s not climate change, what is causing our Springs to be so wet?
One of the biggest impacts on our weather is the ocean current in the Pacific Ocean along the equator. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is called El Nino in its warm phase and La Nina in its cool phase. This ocean current typically has a big impact on our winter and severe weather seasons. That’s why it’s the first thing I looked at.
The last 10 years have featured 1 El Nino, 3 La Ninas, and 6 years in the neutral phase. 2016 and 2021 were the only Springs with below-average rainfall. 2016 was El Nino and 2021 was La Nina, so I cannot make any conclusion.
I guess the answer is I don’t know why 8 out of the last 10 Springs have featured above-normal precipitation.
Looking back at the last 100 years of data it seems below-average and above-average rainfall Springs run together. I don’t know what causes this, but this will probably mean we could see more Springs with below-average rainfall in the coming years.
If you have any other weather topics or questions you would like me to write about, email alibby@kark.com!
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