Arizona Republicans can win in 2024. That is, if that's really their goal
Just eight years ago, Republicans held every statewide office in Arizona. Today, they hold two. If the state GOP keeps its electoral death wish, it soon could be zero.
The signs aren’t looking great for Team Elephant.
National pollster Larry Sabato has updated his “Crystal Ball” to show the new reality. He moved the race to succeed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”
Sabato also moved Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s reelection bid from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”
The most recent poll for the U.S. Senate shows U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego leading likely nominee Kari Lake by 5 percentage points, 39% to 34%.
Arizona Republican Party can't bail Lake out
The Crystal Ball change didn’t rely completely on the polls but takes in Arizona’s volatile abortion debate and fundraising by the candidates.
Gallego has an almost 4-to-1 advantage over Lake in cash on hand. In addition, the Democrat raised about $7.5 million last quarter, compared to just $3.6 million for Lake.
And it’s not like the state party can help out broke candidates.
At the end of the last quarter, the Republican Party of Arizona had about $160,000 on balance, about the same as what they started the quarter with. In comparison, the Arizona Democrats had close to $1.5 million, according to their last filing.
The empty coffers led former GOP chairman Jeff DeWit to hit the panic button last year. Before he could right the ship, he was taken out by the Lake team in a nasty coup.
It’s hard to focus on fundraising when you’re preoccupied with petty turf wars. The main role of Republicans these days is to defeat their own members for not being pure enough.
The GOP is steadily losing Arizona voters
Don’t look for a lifeline by the national party, either. It isn’t faring much better.
At the start of 2024, Democrats had nearly three times the cash on hand of the GOP.
Last year, the Republican National Committee had the lowest fundraising numbers in a decade. The RNC also had a shakeup, leaving Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara, as party co-chair.
Arizona Republicans struggle on party registration. For years, more voters belonged to the GOP than any other party.
As of last summer, they have fallen to second place; not to the Democrats, but to independents. (Republicans reclaimed the lead by a small margin this month, at least.)
Do Republicans in the Grand Canyon State even want to win anymore?
A loss has a bigger payoff than a win
A failed candidate can make serious bank by showily losing close elections, only to blame it on increasingly bizarre conspiracy theories.
By losing at the ballot box, the also-rans are rewarded with appearances at big events, shady legal funds and big book deals. Not to mention free room and board at Mar-a-Lago.
Roe v. Wade gave the GOP cover: There's no hiding now
The few candidates who do win office get little in return. The party base will accuse them of selling out and angrily blast them for ideological impurity. Is a paltry state government salary worth the hassle?
Just eight years ago, the Republicans ran the state. Today they struggle to keep the lights on. If they want any chance of success, it’s time they return to the basics.
Register voters. Raise funds. And for pity’s sake, stop the infighting.
Stop the purity tests and focus on winning
About 15 years ago, the party’s civil war was between the Tea Party and the McCain machine. Following the senator’s death, the MAGA wing took over and purged their old rivals.
It didn’t take long for the victors to turn on each other with never-ending purity tests.
It turns out Arizona voters aren’t motivated by guys in buffalo headdresses or Cyber Ninjas. They want a good economy, basic law-and-order, a solid education policy.
Perhaps the state party can focus on that for a while. Unless they would rather get that book deal.
Jon Gabriel, a Mesa resident, is editor-in-chief of Ricochet.com and a contributor to The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. On X, formerly Twitter: @exjon.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona Republicans can win the 2024 election, but is that their goal?
