Among Republicans, Trump's support is weakest in and around Oklahoma City

It wasn't much of a surprise when Donald Trump won Oklahoma's vote to be the Republican presidential nominee over Nikki Haley.

The former president has steamrolled through GOP primary states so far this election cycle. His resounding victories on Super Tuesday led to Haley suspending her campaign Wednesday morning.

But with an active national campaign against the frontrunner, Haley gave Republican voters the option of someone other than Trump. In most states, Haley was able to secure about one-third of primary electorate. She got even less of the vote share in Oklahoma, but a deeper dive into the results shows where the former president's political movement is losing steam among GOP voters.

OKC Metro voters are softer on MAGA ideology

Overall, Trump won nearly 82% of the Republican primary vote in Oklahoma. By analyzing his support in each of Oklahoma's 101 state House districts, The Oklahoman found that most of the districts where Trump received less than his statewide average are in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas.

For example, Trump's worst performance came in Oklahoma City's House District 85, where he received 60% of votes. Unsurprisingly, that's a solid blue seat currently held by state House Democratic leader Cyndi Munson.

He earned a slightly higher share in Tulsa's District 71, also held by a Democrat.

However, some of his other underperforming districts are held by Republicans. State Rep. Mike Osburn represents Edmond and north Oklahoma City, where Trump received nearly 67% over Haley and the other GOP candidates. Other districts where Trump earned less than 80% are clustered in metro areas, or in larger cities like Stillwater and Enid.

More: Oklahoma Republican turnout rises while Democratic numbers plummet from 2020 primary to 2024

"It kind of confirmed what we were thinking would happen," said attorney and former political adviser Blake Allen. "You saw Haley perform nine points better in Oklahoma County than she did for the rest of the state, nearly hitting 25% in the county itself."

Those results suggest that support for Trump's highly polarizing Make America Great Again political movement is weakening in Oklahoma City's northern neighborhoods.

"I think it kind of shows that even though Oklahoma is more conservative than most of the country, it also shows that it's not immune to nationwide political movements being stronger in ex-urban areas and white working-class rural areas. And that's true in this state, too," Allen said.

Securing the base

Trump appears to have a better hold on his Oklahoma base than the Biden campaign had on Super Tuesday, said Kyle Loveless, a client strategist with WPA Intelligence, a polling and data firm that has performed work for Republican candidates.

Nearly 82% of GOP voters picked Trump, while just 73% of Democratic and independent voters chose Biden. Trump won a majority of all counties while Biden struggled to reach 50% in several rural counties; the president lost Cimarron County in the Panhandle to relative unknown Dean Phillips, although only 24 people cast a Democratic ballot there.

"And just imagine if Biden had (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) to deal with," Loveless said, referencing RFK Jr.'s third-party campaign for the presidency. "Trump has to win the people over in the center. Biden has to win over his base. So that I think Trump's in a better position to win in November."

All bets are off if Trump loses his criminal trials before Election Day, though.

"In the swing states, surveys have shown anywhere from an 8-to-10 point drop for Trump if he's convicted," Loveless said.

Political scientist James Davenport noted that, particularly in swing states, Trump's support has softened in areas that are traditionally Republican.

"I think, in those swing states, especially the states that are up for grabs, the Trump campaign has to be concerned about how much the drop off has been ... and whether or not those voters who did take the opportunity to vote against him, whether or not he can bring them back into a unified party," said Davenport, an associate dean and professor at Rose State College.

Biden also has struggled to keep his base intact, with concerns over his age and an insurgent left that has pressured him over Israel's war in Gaza.

"If I'm Trump, I'm glad I won all those states I did. But I'm not sure those numbers are as favorable as they initially look," Davenport said.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Oklahoma presidential primary reveals cracks in Trump, Biden support