Alsobrooks leads Trone in Senate race, DC News Now poll finds; either would beat Hogan

WASHINGTON (DC News Now) — The results of a new survey released Thursday find that Democrats vying for one of Maryland’s U.S. Senate seats are in a dead heat, with one having a slight advantage over the other.

The Emerson College Polling/DC News Now/The Hill survey found that 42% of voters support Angela Alsobrooks in the Democratic Primary, while 41% said they would choose David Trone.

The Prince George’s County executive and U.S. representative, respectively, are hoping to fill the seat held by Democrat Ben Cardin, who said in 2023 that he would retire from the U.S. Senate at the end of his third term.

Twelve percent of the voters surveyed said they were undecided, but when asked whether they leaned towards Alsobrooks or Trone, total support for Alsobrooks, including those inclinations, rose to 47%. Support for Trone increased to 44%.

The shift in percentages is significant compared to results of a survey conducted by Emerson College Polling/DC News Now/The Hill three months ago.

“Since the February Maryland poll, Alsobrooks’ support increased 25 points, from 17%
to 42%, and Trone’s nine points, from 32% to 41%,” Spencer Kimball, executive
director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Among those who already voted, Trone
leads 51% to 45%, while those who are likely but have not yet voted break for
Alsobrooks, 41% to 37%.”

Other findings of the poll released Thursday include:

• Alsobrooks edges out Trone among women voters, 43% to 38%, while Trone
  slightly leads among men, 45% to 41%.

• Alsobrooks leads Trone among Black voters, 56% to 28%, while Trone leads
  among white voters, 48% to 35%.

Results of the polling come a little more than a week after the DC News Now Maryland Primary Senate Democratic Forum in which Alsobrooks took part. Trone declined invitations to participate.

When it comes to the Republican Primary, the Emerson College Polling/DC News Now/The Hill survey results showed that a majority of voters (56%) support Larry Hogan, 18% support
Robin Ficker, and 20% are undecided.

Since the February poll, which came after Hogan’s announcement he was entering the race, Hogan’s support increased 13 points, from 43% to 56%.

Former Gov. Hogan brings US Senate campaign to western Maryland

Looking at the November general election, Alsobrooks and Trone lead Hogan in hypothetical matchups: Alsobrooks 48% to 38%, with 14% undecided, and Trone 49% to 38%, with 14% undecided.

Since the polling conducted in February, Hogan’s support decreased from 42% against Trone, and 44% against Alsobrooks. The Democratic candidates increased support in the
general election, Trone from 42% to 49%, and Alsobrooks from 37% to 48%.

When asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable view of Alsobrooks, Trone,
and Hogan, here’s what voters said:

• Hogan: 63% favorable, 34% unfavorable, 3% never heard of

• Trone: 54% favorable, 32% unfavorable, 14% never heard of

• Alsobrooks: 54% favorable, 24% unfavorable, 21% never heard of

The poll asked voters other questions which dealt with the presidential election, issues of importance, and pro-Palestine demonstrations:

• President Biden holds a 48% job approval among Maryland voters, while 43% disapprove, and 10% are neutral. Biden leads Trump, 56% to 35%, with 10% undecided.

• With third-party candidates included on the ballot, Biden leads 50% to 33%, while 6%
  support Robert Kennedy Jr., 3% Cornel West, and 1% Jill Stein. Eight percent are
  undecided.

• The economy is the top issue for 31% of voters, followed by crime (17%), housing
  affordability (12%), threats to democracy (11%), healthcare (9%), education (7%), and
  immigration (6%).

• Fifty-one percent of voters generally disapprove of the pro-Palestine demonstrations
  on college campuses, while 30% approve, and 19% are not familiar or have no opinion.

• Approval of the college demonstrations generally decreases with age, from 51%
  approval among voters under 30 to 21% among voters over 60.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/DC News Now/The Hill Maryland poll was conducted May 6-8, 2024.

The sample consisted of n=1,115 Maryland registered voters and with a credibility
interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The Democratic
Primary consisted of n=462, with a credibility interval of +/-4.5%. The Republican
Primary consisted of n=248, with a credibility interval of +/-6.2% The data sets were
weighted by gender, age, party registration, race, and education based on US Census
parameters, and Maryland voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (MD
SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of cell phones via MMS-to-web and
landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), provided by Aristotle, and an online
panel provided by CINT.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age,
education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample
size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores,
and know that with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of
scores 1 in 20 times. Numbers included in the press release are rounded to the nearest
whole number, therefore totals might not always equal 100.

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