41 Pennsylvania counties lost population last year. Which are growing, declining fastest?

Bethany Rodgers, USA TODAY NETWORK
·2 min read
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Pennsylvania saw population declines in 41 of its 67 counties last year as deaths outpaced births in parts of the commonwealth and residents moved out of many rural areas, according to newly released U.S. Census estimates.

The numbers, made public in March, mirror long-term projections, which predict waning populations across much of the Keystone State over the next couple decades. In particular, the total number of residents in the commonwealth’s rural counties is expected to shrink by about 5.8% by 2050, according to the Center for Rural Pennsylvania.

The new Census release estimates that populations dropped across much of western and northern Pennsylvania from July 2022 to July 2023, with Erie County shrinking by 1,269 residents; or 0.5%; Beaver County shrinking by 106 residents, or 0.06%; and Cambria County shrinking by 761 residents, or 0.6%.

In some counties, such Allegheny and Philadelphia, the number of residents is falling primarily as people leave for other communities, the Census data indicates.

Other counties are dealing with population declines largely because deaths are exceeding births. That’s the case in Beaver County, which experienced an estimated natural loss of 739 residents, while gaining 631 residents from net in-migration, according to the federal projections.

Percent Change in County Population: July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023
Percent Change in County Population: July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023

[Source: U.S. Census Bureau]

Monroe County took estimated losses in both categories, with about 364 more deaths than births and a net resident outflow of about 1,045 people.

So did Erie County, which experienced a natural loss of 312 people. And though the county's international population grew by an estimated 366 people over the year, those gains were eclipsed by the loss of about 1,332 domestic residents due to relocation, according to the estimates for the one-year period.

On the other hand, southeastern and some central areas of the state are bucking the overall trend by continuing to grow.

For example, York County’s population climbed by an estimated 3,600 people, with a natural increase of 106 residents and net in-migration of 3,501 residents. Bucks County also expanded by about 430 people, according to the projections.

The five Pennsylvania counties that experienced the fastest estimated population declines from 2022 to 2023 are

  • Forest County, with a population decrease of 2.3%;

  • Union County, with a population decrease of 1.5%;

  • Potter County, with a population decrease of 1.3%;

  • Fayette County, with a population decrease of 1.2%; and

  • Montour County, with a population decrease of 1.1%.

The five Pennsylvania counties where the estimated growth rate was highest from 2022 to 2023 are

  • Pike County, with a population increase of 1.1%;

  • Cumberland County, with a population increase of 0.8%;

  • York County, with a population increase of 0.8%;

  • Adams County, with a population increase of 0.7%; and

  • Chester County, with a population increase of 0.6%.

This article originally appeared on Beaver County Times: Which PA counties are losing residents fastest?