World threatened by massive attacks of disruption, destruction

For more than a decade, I have been making the argument and sounding the alarm that the greatest existential danger to the world at large was Massive Attacks of Disruption, whether caused by man or by nature.

I would add a second D for destruction. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza reflect the first. COVID-19 and environmental catastrophes from floods and droughts to uncontrollable fires are caused by the latter.

The most recent example underscores the nature of the threats and the dangers posed by MAD. Houthis operating from a very underdeveloped Yemen are blocking and threatening the peaceful passage of global shipping in an international waterway with drones, advanced air breathing and ballistic missiles. The Red Sea has long been known as a "chokepoint" for seaborne commerce.

Scenarios for this and other chokepoints are not new. Sea mines have been used for centuries to block chokepoints. But the application of advanced and often cheap technologies has never before been used so effectively. About one-seventh of global trade sails through the Suez Canal, having to transit the Red Sea coming or going. About half that traffic recently has been rerouted around Africa's southern Cape of Good Hope, greatly increasing transit time and costs to the shippers.

Last week, several sailors were killed and the merchant ship Rubymar was sunk, underscoring the risks. In December, the United States formed an international coalition of about 20 states to protect these civilian ships. The operation was named Prosperity Guardian. The prime purpose of the warships was to defend against Houthi air and, if they occur, surface and underwater attacks.

A secondary purpose was to target Houthi shore-based drone and missile sites, as well as command, control and surveillance systems.

Substantial numbers of Houthi drones and missiles have been shot down. But so-called "leakers" have penetrated the defenses, as no defense is perfect. And the Houthis are winning the cost-exchange battle.

A U.S. Navy SM-6 anti-air missile costs about $6 million; a Tomahawk land attack missile about $2 million. Some of the Houthi drones cost in the thousands of dollars. And U.S. warships cannot rearm at sea, meaning they must depart the battle zone once their magazines are empty.

The Houthis argue that their attacks are legal and in support of Gaza in a war they claim is being illegally waged by Israel, even though it was caused by Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre of 1,200 Israelis in an unprovoked and hideous act of terror. Yet, shipping lines cannot take the risk of one of their vessels being hit or sunk and many are diverting to more expensive and time-consuming routes.

What can be done?

Given that Yemen has minimal production facilities for ballistic and cruise missiles, the obvious supplier is Iran, although other states such as North Korea cannot be excluded. Iran's leaders have consistently denied wanting a larger war and are playing a very cynical and double game of plausibly denying any involvement. Drones are relatively cheap and Ukraine has demonstrated how effectively they can change the battlefield.

Prosperity Guardian has four basic strategic options. It can continue its present operation to protect and defend civilian shipping and attrit Houthi missile and drone attacks, hoping that at some point the other side runs out of bullets that it otherwise needs for self-defense. Option two is to escalate air attacks to accelerate Houthi attrition.

Option three is to deploy land and special forces to destroy sufficient facilities and weapons to disarm the Houthis of these capabilities. Last is to target Iran with sanctions, blockades and even disarming strikes to cut off the source of Houthi arms. Clearly, using land forces is risky and potentially dangerous if escalation follows and more troops are needed. Physical attacks on Iran could certainly provoke a broader conflict and even a war.

At some stage, the war in Gaza will end. But that does not mean Houthis will not retain the ability to block the Red Sea or attack ships in transit for specific reasons beyond Gaza and perhaps to continue applying pressure to Israel by restricting its trade and access to the south and east. Hence, Prosperity Guardian could become a more permanent operation requiring substantial resources to sustain it.

That means a ground operation, despite the risks and dangers, must be explored. It may prove to be infeasible, too escalatory and too expensive. But this is a peril that the new MAD brings, giving so-called "weaker states," huge asymmetric advantages that "stronger states" have not learned to overcome.

Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council, the prime author of "shock and awe" and author of "The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large." Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.