Which will be the world's most visited countries in 2030?

France - the world’s most popular holiday destination for at least three decades - will be ousted from the top spot by 2030, a new report has predicted.

Thanks to the growing demand for travel among Asia’s burgeoning middle class, experts at Euromonitor International, a market research group, believes it is only a matter of time before it is overtaken by China.

France welcomed 86.9m overseas visitors in 2017, up three per cent on the 84.5m that went two years ago, up 12 per cent from the 77.6m that went in 2010, and up 45 per cent from the 60m it welcomed in 1995. China received 60.7m last year, making it the fourth most popular country overall, but its rate of growth is easily outstripping France’s. That figure of 60.7m represents a seven per cent increase since 2015 and a 203.5 per cent increase on the 20m that visited China in 1995.

“Tourism is a key pillar of the Chinese economy, and much investment has been made to improve infrastructure and standards, in addition to tourism-friendly policies and initiatives,” said Euromonitor’s senior travel analyst, Wouter Geerts, speaking at World Travel Market in London this week.

He pointed to the loosening of visa restrictions throughout Asia and said the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022 would further boost the country’s popularity.

By 2030, Euromonitor predicts, a total of 2.4 billion annual international trips will be made around the world – up from the 1.4 billion expected in 2018. While China is expected to seize the top spot, other Asian nations will no doubt benefit from the region’s growth.

Among the 10 fastest growing travel destinations since 2010 are Japan (+234 per cent), India (+167 per cent), Vietnam (+158 per cent), Thailand (+122 per cent), Taiwan (+91 per cent) and the Philippines (+89 per cent).

Western countries have experienced far more modest growth over that period, with the US seeing an increase of just 22 per cent, Germany 39 per cent, and the UK 33.2 per cent.

This trend looks likely to continue. The 20 most visited countries in 1990 included Hungary, Switzerland, Portugal, Czech Republic and Belgium. They have since been replaced by the likes of Japan and Macao. By 2030, India, Indonesia and Vietnam could well be dining at the top table.

Euromonitor’s report also predicted a rise in visitors to the UK after Brexit, thanks to an expected fall in the value of the pound, and a fall in the number of Britons going on overseas trips.  “A ‘no-deal Brexit’ would result in five million fewer outbound departures in 2022 than would have been the case under the baseline scenario,” said Euromonitor’s head of travel, Caroline Bremner. She highlighted how young people in the UK have less money than in the past, “whereas it is the opposite in Asia.”

China’s outbound boom

As well as being the number one destination for travellers, China’s globetrotters will dominate the outbound market, according to Euromonitor, overtaking the US and Germany with 260 million outbound tourist trips by 2030 (up from 145m last year).

Other sources predict even bigger growth. The China Outbound Tourism Research Institute (COTRI) thinks that overseas trips by the country’s residents will increase to more than 400m by 2030. Should that hold true, the country will account for a quarter of international tourism.

No wonder tourist boards are falling over themselves to woo the country’s expanding army of middle-class travellers. VisitBritain's GREAT China Welcome campaign, for example, was launched in 2014. Hotels, tour operators and attractions are being urged to make themselves “China-ready” by providing information in Mandarin or Cantonese and adapting their products for the Chinese market and culture.

The British Museum, Chatsworth House and Marriott Hotels are among the 400-odd businesses to have taken heed so far. More curiously, the UK tourist board also asked Chinese travellers to rename some of Britain’s most famous attractions, with the Gherkin becoming “the pickled little cucumber” and Scotland's Highland Games reassigned the moniker “Special Skirt Party”.